Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 292029
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
329 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Main forecast challenge will be severe potential for areas along
and south of the Interstate 94 corridor on Monday afternoon and
Monday evening. As for tonight, the cumulus field is already
showing signs of thinning. There are a few showers left from
Mahnomen to Detroit Lakes, but these should not last too much
longer. Drier air continues to move in from the west, with the dew
point at KDVL already at 41F. With the drier air moving in, not
expecting fog formation tonight. Monday will start out nice, but
storms will increase over the central or western Dakotas by
afternoon. SPC day 2 outlook has areas along and south of the
Interstate 94 corridor in a marginal risk, with Sargent County ND
in a slight risk. This event still a day away, so confidence not
great at the moment in timing or placement of the tstm
development. There is a lot of variation yet in the models, with
the ECMWF slower than the American models. Thinking that storms
will fire over the western or central Dakotas in the afternoon and
move eastward and affect this FA during the late afternoon or
evening. Models do show good agreement in another widespread pcpn
event, with a good one to two inches for most of the FA. Models
also agree on showing most of the pcpn rotating northward later
Monday night, with drying working into portions of far southeast
ND.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

On Tuesday the dry slot remains over southeast ND and portions of
west central MN, with the main pcpn band along and north of
highway 200. As the sfc low lifts NE Tue night into Wed, the pcpn
will slowly turn to lighter wraparound bands.

For Wed night through Sunday...Surface high will be dropping into
northern valley behind an upper ridge that should dry things out
Wed night and keep it dry on Thursday...with slightly cooler
temperatures generally in the 60s...with lower 70s in southeastern
ND. Return flow then sets up Thu night with a frontal system
moving into the area early Fri morning, bringing a chance for
showers and thunderstorms through Sat morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

MVFR cigs AT BJI will climb into VFR range be mid afternoon and some
clearing across MN side of valley expected overnight tonight.  Will
see some showers approaching DVL near end of 18Z TAF period.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Speicher
AVIATION...Speicher



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