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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 212029
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
129 PM MST Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions continue through the middle of
the week. Cooler, more unsettled conditions return for the second
half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The pattern of warm and dry conditions will continue
through the next few days. Warm temperatures are expected through
at least Tuesday with afternoon breezes each day. Some clouds will
develop each day, especially across the higher terrain. But
overall it will continue to be beautiful spring weather across the
high country.

Wednesday will be the last warm day of this great stretch of
weather as we will start to see a more unsettled pattern across
the region.

A low pressure over the Pacific will move towards the southern
California coast, moving through Arizona Thursday. Ahead of the
low, we will see the pressure gradient start to tighten up with
an increase in winds across the region. As the low crosses the
area, temperatures will start to fall and what was once warm will
be decidedly much cooler. On average, temperatures will drop
20-30 degrees by the time we reach the weekend. Additionally,
while there is some moisture advecting into the area, it looks
pretty limited. There will be some chances for some showers to
develop on Thursday but much more likely that it ends up being
more like sprinkles with much of the region remaining dry.

While this first low doesn`t look to be all that impactful, there
is a secondary trough that will arrive on Saturday. This trough
looks to be a bit more promising with stronger winds and better
chances for showers across the region.

Overall, the second half of the weak looks windy, colder, and
generally unsettled. Something to keep an eye on as we head
through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 21/18Z through Monday 22/18Z...VFR conditions
persist with sunny skies this morning seeing FEW to SCT cloud
development during the afternoon. Light surface winds today with
a few modest afternoon gusts remaining below 20 kts. Breezy SW
winds after 17Z tomorrow.

OUTLOOK...Monday 22/18Z through Wednesday 24/18Z...VFR conditions
continue. Breezy daytime SW surface winds at 10-20 kts, gusting
20-30 kts will become light each evening. The strongest winds of
the period are forecast for Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Warm, dry conditions both days.
Light, mostly variable winds today will become southwest at 10-20
mph, gusting 20-30 mph on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...A cooling trend with breezy southwest
winds Tuesday. Winds increase Wednesday and Thursday with gusts of
30-40 mph. A slight chance of showers arrives Thursday, mainly for
Coconino County. Wetting rains are unlikely.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Mazon
FIRE WEATHER...Mazon

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff