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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 140911
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
211 AM MST Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A strong low pressure system will bring gusty winds and
cooler temperatures for today with isolated showers on Monday.
Temperatures will warm through the rest of the week with lighter
winds expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Low pressure spinning just of the central California
coast early this morning, will start to push to the east over the
next day. In advance of the system we will see a tightening pressure
gradient, which will result in gusty winds across northern and
central Arizona. South-southwest winds will increase through the
day, becoming 10-20 mph with gusts between 30-40 mph this afternoon.
The low tracks inland this evening, digging slightly southward as it
moves eastward. Some meager moisture will be pulled into the region
resulting in some isolated showers late tonight, mainly across
northwestern Arizona. Additionally, cooler air will continue to move
into the region.

The low will cross the area on Monday. Moisture remains limited so
not expecting much more than some isolated showers through the
afternoon. CAMs and ensemble guidance has trended drier over the
past several runs, giving higher confidence that most areas will
remain dry as the trough moves through our region. Winds will remain
gusty on Monday, with the strongest winds remaining across eastern
Arizona. Temperatures will be the coldest of the week with daytime
highs 5 to 15 degrees below average.

The trough exits the region by early Tuesday and it looks like we
will remain dry through the rest of the week. Temperatures will
start to rebound nicely, about 10 degrees warmer than Monday. We
will continue to see temperatures warm through the week. Expect
lighter winds to prevail.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 14/06Z through Monday 15/06Z...VFR conditions
will continue through the TAF period. Look for winds generally out
of the south 15 kts or less through 12Z. After 18Z, expect S-SW winds
at 15-25 kts sustained and gusting 30-40 kts.

OUTLOOK...Monday 15/06Z through Wednesday 17/06Z...Mostly VFR
conditions are expected to continue, but isolated/brief MVFR
conditions from -SHRA/-SHSN are possible on Monday. Expect west
winds 15-25 kts, gusting 25-35 kts throughout Monday afternoon,
becoming lighter W-NW winds on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Cooler each day and mostly dry
with a few showers possible on Monday. Today, southwest winds 20 to
30 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph; expect minimum RH values between
10 and 30 percent. On Monday, west winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts of
25 to 35 mph; expect minimum RH values between 20 and 40 percent.

Tuesday through Thursday...Much warmer and very dry. Expect minimum
RH values of 10 to 20 percent and west breezes at 10 to 20 mph each
day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Benji

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff