906
FXUS65 KFGZ 292322
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
422 PM MST Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions will continue through the
week with breezy afternoon winds. Temperatures will generally
remain near normal. Another low pressure system could affect
northern Arizona this weekend, with wind gusts up to 35-45 mph
possible by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Dry and quasi-zonal flow will continue over the
southwestern U.S. through the week. Southwesterly wind gusts up to
15-25 mph will be possible each afternoon through the end of the
week. Temperatures will generally remain near normal.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the strength and
evolution of the next system forecast to affect northern Arizona
Sunday. The operational GFS is by far the most aggressive with
this system, progging the low to strengthen as it digs into the
southern California coast. The operational ECMWF is more mellow
with this system, keeping it an open wave as it passes harmlessly
to the north. The ensemble mean solution also keeps this low
relatively weaker than the operational GFS, so will follow with
the ensemble mean for now. Regardless, wind gusts should kick up
into the 35-45 mph range by Sunday afternoon with continued dry
conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 30/00Z through Wednesday 01/00Z...VFR
conditions with SW winds 10-20 kts, becoming light and variable
after 03Z. SW winds increase to 10-15 kts after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 01/00Z through Friday 03/00Z...VFR conditions
with SW winds 10-20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Wednesday...Dry conditions with
warming temperatures. Breezy southwest winds 10-20 mph this evening
and Tuesday afternoon, with minimum afternoon RH 10-20%. Gusty
southwest winds on Wednesday, with afternoon gusts 30-40 mph.

Thursday through Saturday...Slightly cooler temperatures
Thursday...then warming Friday and Saturday and remaining dry.
Northeast winds Thursday morning becoming southwest in the
afternoon. Southwest winds 15 to 25 MPH on Friday and Saturday
afternoons. Afternoon minimum RH 10-20%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff