Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 251707
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1207 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Major Spring storm continues across the region, with all
  precipitation types possible through Tuesday.

- Issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Yankton, Turner, and Minnehaha
  counties to account for a slight increase in snowfall totals
  in addition to impacts from blowing snow. Additional expansion
  may still be needed.

- Strong north/northwest winds will prevail today, with gusts between
  30 to 50 MPH possible along and west of I-29. Blizzard
  conditions are expected to occur, especially near central
  South Dakota.

- Precipitation gradually diminishes across the region by
  Tuesday afternoon, allowing largely quiet conditions to return
  through Friday. Snowpack will impact temperatures, but should
  see highs slowly moderate back toward seasonal norms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Forecast remains largely on track, with the rain/snow line having
shifted ever so slightly southeastward. Areas generally west of a
line from Yankton, SD to Sioux Falls, SD to Marshall, MN will
continue to see snow, while areas along and just east of that line
will see snow with chances for freezing rain and ice pellets mixing
in with the snow this afternooon, and areas in NW IA and adjacent
will largely continue to see rain throughout the day. As we head
into the overnight period, expect everything to shift eastwards as
the surface low moves east of the area bringing cooler air in from
the northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Dreary conditions continue as rain remains ongoing for much of our
area, with light snow being reported near a line extending from
Marshall-Mitchell-Chamberlain. Areas northwest of this line are
currently experiencing a lull in precipitation, though snow should
begin to fill in over the next hour or so as the sfc low pressure
lifts further northward. Winds during this time will continue to
shift more north/northwesterly and increase in speed as the SPG
tightens overhead. As such, expect gusts between 30 to 50 MPH to be
possible in areas along and west of I-29 through the afternoon.
Given that the heaviest snow is expected to fall in this area -
believe the current Blizzard Warning and Winter Storm Warning remain
in good shape. Did however, decide to issue a Winter Weather
Advisory for Yankton, Turner, and Minnehaha counties to account for
a slight increase in snowfall totals and impacts from the wind.
Additional expansions may still be needed depending on how the
system performs today. Regardless of where you are or what headline
you`re in, would still encourage you to prepare for slick roads,
reduced visibilities, or a combination of both. If you must
commute, remember: Ice and Snow, Take it Slow!

In regard to precipitation, should see snow be the dominant p-type
along and northwest of a line extending from Marshall-Sioux Falls-
Yankton late this morning through the evening, with rain or a rain
snow mix expected in areas east. Heading into the evening, expect
cooler air to infiltrate the region as northwesterly winds continue
to prevail. As a result, will see snow shift east of I-29, with a
corridor of freezing rain also possible along the leading edge.
While most ice accumulations should remain confined to a light
glaze, can`t rule out the possibility of seeing a tenth or so along
the Buffalo Ride - especially on elevated surfaces.

Heading into Tuesday, expect snow to have diminished in areas west of
I-29, with light snow still possible in areas east through the
afternoon. Additional accumulations up to half an inch remain
possible. While gusty northwesterly winds between 35 to 50 MPH look
to continue, think the ongoing Blizzard Warning will be okay to
expire given the lack of falling snow out west. Nonetheless, still
want to emphasis that periods of blowing/drifting snow will be
possible until winds diminish, in addition to reduced visibilities.
Thus, we encourage you to proceed with caution if you must travel!
In regard to temperatures, only have highs rising into the mid 20s
to lower 30s, with overnight lows dropping into the single digits to
lower teens. Wind chills during this time will also feel quiet raw
as temperatures hover on either side of 0.

Quiet conditions return Wednesday in the wake of the departing upper
level trough. Sfc high pressure will slide overhead during the
morning hours resulting in mostly sunny skies and light winds
through the afternoon. Temperatures will still remain fairly cool
though, especially in areas with a higher snowpack. For now, have
highs ranging from the mid 20s to upper 30s, with the warmest values
across NW Iowa.

Otherwise, expect upper level ridging to build across the central
CONUS Thursday and Friday, allowing highs to moderate back toward
seasonal norms. As alluded to in the previous discussion, could see
a few chances for precipitation through the weekend as shortwaves
graze the region. However, quite a bit of model uncertainty exists
to put too much confidence behind any one solution just yet.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

With ongoing precipitation chances continuing today, IFR/LIFR
conditions are to be expected across vast majority of the area this
afternoon. Areas generally west of a line from Yankton, SD to Sioux
Falls, SD to Marshall, MN will continue to see snow, while areas
along and just east of that line will see snow with chances for
freezing rain and ice pellets mixing in, and areas in NW IA and
adjacent will largely continue to see rain throughout the day. As we
head into the overnight period, expect everything to shift eastwards
as cooler air is brought in from the northwest. There is potential
for blowing snow to continue into Tuesday, especially for areas
where 3+ inches of snow has fallen, but there is uncertainty in
how movable that snow will be.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for SDZ039-040-
     054>056-060-061-065-068.
     Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for SDZ038-050-052-053-
     057>059-063-064.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for SDZ062-066-
     069.
MN...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ071-072-080-
     097.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...APT
DISCUSSION...SST
AVIATION...APT


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