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000
FXUS63 KFSD 142316
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
616 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RECORD HEAT
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LOW TO EVEN MID 100S ACROSS NORTHWEST
IOWA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND STILL LOW TO MID 90S
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
ALTHOUGH THE HRRR AND RUC HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT BY 22Z. GIVEN THAT BOTH OF THESE SHORT
RANGE MODELS ARE DOING A PRETTY GOOD JOB WITH SURFACE TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS..THINK SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY FIRE AS WE MIX THROUGH
WHATEVER CAP THERE IS. HOWEVER LOOKS LIKE THIS THREAT IS MAINLY
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...THUS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH WINDS WEAKENING. THUS WHILE LOWS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...MAY STILL SEE THEM GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY
MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS.

MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WITH A WEAK WAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE. SO WILL SEE A
REGION OF WEAK LIFT AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER THETAE
ADVECTION IS PRETTY WEEK...AND LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION FORM ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...WHICH WILL TRY TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS OUR
AREA. HOWEVER GIVEN THE ABOVE LIMITATIONS...THINK THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP IN OUR CWA IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES
REACHING THE GROUND ANYTIME FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY GIVEN CLOUD COVER
POTENTIAL. BUT FEEL WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF SUN AS WELL...WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AND RECENTLY WE
HAVE BEEN GETTING WARMER THAN JUST ABOUT EVERY GUIDANCE...SO DESPITE
CLOUD COVER CONCERNS WENT AHEAD AND RAISED HIGHS A COUPLE
DEGREES...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING SOME MORE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES BEFORE MOST OF THE
HUMID AIR GETS HERE ON THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY BEGIN IN THE SOUTH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS THREAT SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP POPS MINIMAL ON
FRIDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A BREAK ON THAT DAY. THEN THE
THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...WITH THE PEAK THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT. A SEVERE THREAT
OR MODESTLY HEAVY RAIN SEEMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE UNCERTAIN WITH IT BEING WELL DISCUSSED
ABOUT THE TOO HIGH GFS DEW POINTS. IN ANY EVENT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM DURING THE DAY BUT EVEN WARMER RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT
NIGHT...OR NO REAL HOT SPELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH
THROUGH ABOUT 1Z THEN TAPER OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08