Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 160806
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
306 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected today. Sunday
  will see similar wind/RH conditions, but will be a bit on the
  cold side so high to very high fire danger is expected.

- Cooler temperatures and breezy conditions are expected heading
  into the weekend, with highs below seasonal normals Sunday.

- Pattern shift possible by late next week which could bring
  increasing chances for precipitation back to the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Low pressure at the surface to the northeast is dragging a cold
front south early this morning. Just ahead of this front westerly
flow increases a bit and there has been some briefly rising
temperatures just before the cold front. Temperatures will not be
significantly colder behind this front with highs from the upper 40s
to mid 50s common. The main concern with this front will be the
strong northerly winds gusting to 35 to 40 mph as well as falling
humidity, likely right around 25 percent most locations this
afternoon. Thus have upgraded most of the area to a red flag
warning. The two areas that are not will be south central SD where
relative humidity needs to fall below 20 percent and parts of
northwest IA and northeast NE where a quarter to a half an inch of
rain fell 2 days ago, adding some short term moisture to the soils.

Northerly winds will remain strong through the night as temperatures
drop into the 20s. Wind chills should fall into the teens and single
digits later tonight into Sunday morning which will feel pretty cold
given the very mild temperatures the past several weeks. This leads
into the fire weather threat for Sunday as strong northerly winds
should gust to around 30 mph with afternoon humidities falling to
about 25 to 30 percent. With the slightly lower winds and much
colder temperatures, after highs likely in the 30s to not much above
40 most locations, will not issue any fire weather headlines. Will
also see a chance for some enhanced cumulus ;development and a few
flurries or sprinkles as well with some very weak instability at the
top of the mixed layer and temperatures within the dendritic zone
here as well.

Surface high pressure settles in Sunday night and drops south on
Monday. This should allow for warmer conditions and winds to turn
from the west to the southwest. Highs generally near to a bit above
normal. Fire weather concerns will continue although winds will not
be as much of a problem. Relative humidities will fall to 20 to 30
percent in most areas.

Tuesday through Thursday will see temperatures fairly similar each
day with most locations topping out from the upper 40s to mid 50s.
This is in response to northwest flow becoming a bit more westerly
through the period. The chances for precipitation are fairly low
during this time, but increase a bit into Thursday. Thursday night
into Friday sees a bit more favorable pattern for some precipitation
and the EC ensemble and GEFS both agree, although for now the better
chances are to the north. Still pretty far out so just watching
trends.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Gusty winds will be the focus of this TAF period. Southwest flow
early in the period, ahead of a trough/cool front moving southeast
across the region, will generally see gusts remain below 25kt.
Stronger westerly flow above the surface will also produce areas
of low level wind shear ahead of the trough through daybreak
Saturday.

As winds swing to the northwest after FROPA, winds will increase
through Saturday morning. Frequent gusts to around 30kt will be
prevalent Saturday afternoon, with occasional higher gusts to
near 35kt possible. Winds should subside around or shortly after
sunset Saturday evening, or 17/00Z-01Z, though gusts to around
20kt are still possible thereafter.

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, though portions
of the Hwy 14 corridor east of KHON may see a brief period of
MVFR ceilings early Saturday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Critical fire weather is expected in most locations
today as strong winds couple with very dry fuels and a dry
atmosphere. South central SD will remain in a watch as conditions
remain just a bit above critical as relative humidities would need
to fall below 20 percent. Northeast NE and parts of northwest IA had
some recent rain and this should aid in keeping conditions just
short of red flag. Sunday will see strong winds and dry conditions
again, but with temperatures more in the 30s to lower 40s it will
be a bit on the colder side, so mainly high to very high conditions.
Monday will see continued fire weather concerns, but winds will be a
little lighter so mainly high to very high. The end of the week into
next weekend continues to show potential for precipitation.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for SDZ038>040-052>056-058>062-064>070.
     Fire Weather Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through this
     evening for SDZ050-057-063.
MN...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for IAZ001.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...JH
FIRE WEATHER...08


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