Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 260334
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
934 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

LIFT SOUTH OF THE MAIN FRONTAL SNOWBAND AS MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING ENCOUNTERING LACK OF DEEP SATURATION...AND
RESULT HAS BEEN AN EXPLOSION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. JUST STARTING TO
HEAR OF SOME SLICK SPOTS DEVELOPING AS TEMPS HAVE FALLEN FROM NEAR
FREEZING TO JUST BELOW IN THE 28 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE. PEAK OF LIFT
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND SHOULD SEE A DWINDLING
TO THE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE GOING PAST MIDNIGHT. AS FAR AS
THE ADVISORY GOES...WILL STAY THE COURSE LATE EVENING. A FEW REPORTS
OF 2 TO A LITTLE MORE THAN 3 INCHES SO FAR...BUT DOES APPEAR AS
IF THE LIFT FORCING WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND LIKELY THAT ADVISORY CAN BE DROPPED EARLY IF ALL
RECENT GUIDANCE FROM HI RES MODELS HOLDS UP TO THE TEST TO TIME.

00Z NAM/CANADIAN REGIONAL ARE NOW SUGGESTING THE SECOND PART OF
THE SYSTEM WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL IMPACT MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST THAN EARLIER RUNS...WHICH WOULD GIVE HIGHER THREAT FOR
SNOWFALL FARTHER BACK INTO SERN SD AND SW MN. WILL WAIT TO SEE IF
TREND CONTINUES WITH 00Z GFS AND LET NIGHT SHIFT MAKE ANY NEEDED
ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS SECOND BAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

700 MB FRONTOGENETIC SNOW BAND HAS SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  AS THE MAIN UPPER
WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT SNOW TO INTENSIFY.
WITH THE SNOW INTENSIFYING AND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...WILL LIKELY SEE 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW FROM CHAMBERLAIN TO DE
SMET AND HAVE ISSUED A SMALL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.  AS THE WAVE
SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BAND OF SNOW WILL APPROACH I-29
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY DRIVING THE ELEVATED
BOUNDARY SOUTH.

AM CAUGHT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT
HAVE SOME LIGHT POPS LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS
AREA IS IN THE LEFT FRONT OF INTENSIFYING JET STREAK ACROSS THE MID
WEST LEADING TO WEAK LIFT.  QUESTION REMAINS HOWEVER AS TO WHETHER
THIS LIFT WILL BE REALIZED AS DENDRITIC LAYER

SECOND WAVE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS 00Z
SATURDAY.  THIS BAND LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE 750-700 MB
FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR A VERMILLION SD TO JACKSON
LINE.  EXPECT A QUICK 1-2 INCHES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE MAIN AXIS.  WITH CLEARING SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

NO MUCH EXPECTED AFTER THE SNOWFALL ENDS EARLY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND WITH THE
FRESH COVER...I WOULDNT EXPECT MUCH MOVEMENT WITH THE HIGHS AS
MIXING WILL BE LIGHT.  SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE FIRST DAY IN QUITE A
WHILE WHERE THE SUN WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE COLDER
WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY STAGES OF THE COMING WEEK.  ALL
MODELS POINT TO THE TREND OF BEING MUCH COLDER THAN WE HAVE BEEN
LATELY.  ALSO CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION DUE TO
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THE FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING A
LITTLE ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA.

LOWERED HIGHS A LITTLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA AT THAT TIME.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR BOTH DAYS...BUT ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE CLEAR SKIES.  RIGHT NOW...I AM EXPECTING WINDS TO STAY UP FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT SO DIDN`T BOTTOM OUT LOWS.  BUT IF THE WINDS GO
LIGHT...TEMPS COULD GO QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN
THE FRESH SNOW COVERED AREAS.  HIGHS START TO RECOVER THURSDAY AS
MODELS START TO INDICATE WARMER AIR MOVING BACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

MAIN SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SD...INCLUDING IN THE KHON AREA. EXPECT
VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1 OR 2 MILES AT TIMES WITH CEILINGS AROUND
1000 FEET IN THE LIGHT SNOW. MEANWHILE LOW STRATUS AHEAD OF THE
BAND BLANKETING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY EXPAND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. AREAS OF FLURRIES OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS STRATUS. AS THE SNOW BAND SHIFTS
EAST THIS EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS IT WILL DISSIPATE. LOW
STRATUS LINGERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A SECOND BAND
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST SD AND NORTHWEST
IOWA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES
DEVELOPING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR SDZ038-039-052-
     057.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HEITKAMP
AVIATION...


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