Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 161143
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
543 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

STRONG GRADIENT REMAINS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND EVEN WITH A DECREASE LATE IN THE CURRENT NIGHT... WILL
STILL HAVE ENOUGH WIND ENERGY ALOFT TO SUPPORT GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EASTERN CWA. WINDS SHOULD DROP
ENOUGH TO ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING OF SNOW AND PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW IN SW MN THROUGH MID MORNING...NOTHING
WIDESPREAD. AS TEMPS IN THE CLOUD LAYER CONTINUE TO COOL...WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW FLURRIES CYCLE THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER EARLY MORNING AS WELL. CLOUDS A CHALLENGE TODAY WITH A FEW
BREAKS ACROSS EASTERN ND AND FAR NORTHEAST SD ON A TRAJECTORY TO
IMPACT THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND
INDICATIONS OF NARROWING MOIST DEPTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR
GREATER BREAKS IN THE MIDDLE... BACKING CLOUDS BOTH TOWARD THE
WEST...AND ROTATING MORE SO THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA. GIVEN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND SNOWFALL FROM YESTERDAY...NOT EXPECTING A GREAT
DEAL OF MOVEMENT WITH TEMPS TODAY...PERHAPS RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES
FROM MID MORNING MINS.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY FORMIDABLE CLEARING OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA...LIKELY WILL FIND TEMPERATURES THE COLDEST IN QUITE
SOME TIME WITH NEW SNOW COVER AND WINDS DIMINISHING...ESPECIALLY THE
BETWEEN I 29 AND THE JAMES VALLEY. BLENDED IN SOME OF THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE IN FORM OF CANADIAN REGIONAL...WHICH AT FACE VALUE WOULD
BRING -5 TO -10 INTO PLAY AROUND KMDS/KMHE...NOT AN UNREASONABLE
OUTCOME.  FOR NOW...HAVE CUT TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES OVER DEEPER SNOW...
MAINLY ZERO TO 5 BELOW FROM EAST CENTRAL SD INTO THE MID JAMES
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

OVERALL MORE SEASONABLE AND DRY PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL THANKS TO THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH ALBEDO OF
FRESH SNOW...SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WITHIN SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...
THINK LOCATIONS WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW BAND MAY HAVE A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPS DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE COOLED HIGHS 3-5F FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST FROM MITCHELL UP TOWARD BROOKINGS. SIMILAR COOLING FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN NORTHCENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE WE COULD
SEE A QUICK EVENING DROP...BEFORE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND MID-HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. MODELS HINTING AT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
WITHIN THIS BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED OF THIS YET
BUT HAVE BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING
WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CONJUNCTION OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

BEYOND THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE WARMING TREND TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG A LITTLE MORE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY AHEAD OF JET CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY FOR NOW...BUT POSSIBLE THIS COULD EXPAND IF CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS OR HIGHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY
AS BRISK WINDS CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH...ALONG WITH CLEARING TREND DURING THE
DAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME RAGGED IN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY HAVE PERIODS OF IN AND OUT CEILINGS INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING CONTINUE TO ERODE
CLOUDS THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA...WITH MORE CLOUDS WEST AND
EAST. HAVE TAKEN A MORE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE ON CEILINGS AT THIS
JUNCTURE WITH MOIST LAYER BECOMING MORE SHALLOW WITH MODEST
SUBSIDENCE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CHAPMAN



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