Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 252336
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
636 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TONIGHT WILL NOT PRESENT TOO MUCH OF A FORECAST PROBLEM. LIGHT
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING FROM THE WEST A STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZE. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES BUT THERE IS A QUESTION OF LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA
LATE WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH. AM LEANING TO
THE STRONGEST PART OF THE MOISTURE FETCH COMING UP FURTHER EAST
AND THE MORE SOLID LOW CLOUDS BEING SOUTH OF OUR AREA...SO HAVE GONE
WITH A MODEST INCREASE TO NOT MUCH MORE THAN HALF SKY COVER
SPREADING/DEVELOPING EAST OVER THE AREA DURING SUNDAY WHILE THE
SOUTHWEST CLEAR OUT OF ANY EARLY MORNING STRATUS THEY MIGHT HAVE.
THE NAM CERTAINLY WOULD INDICATE A MORE SOLID CLOUD COVER
SPREADING IN AS EVIDENT ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...BUT I BELIEVE IT KEEPS
THE LOWER LAYERS TOO COOL WELL INTO SUNDAY.

THE STRONGEST SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE...CONNECTED TO THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH...WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND SPREAD QUICKLY FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD HOLD A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF THE DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE...THOUGH HAVE COOLED
SOME LOWS IN THE EAST JUST A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WHAT WE HAD BEFORE.
QUESTIONS ON SUNDAY HIGHS ARISE BECAUSE OF THE DOUBT IN THE AMOUNT
OF LOW CLOUDS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT HIGHS PRETTY WARM...AGAIN JUST
LOWERING SOME PLACES IN THE EAST A DEGREE OR TWO.

AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT THE FIRE DANGER TO GO ABOVE THE HIGH
CATEGORY WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS...LARGELY BECAUSE OF THE
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS...EVEN WHEN DISCARDING THE GFS
WHICH LOOKS TOO GUNG HO WITH THOSE DEWPOINTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS
TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST ONCE MORE OVERNIGHT...BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMERGES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AND
SLIDES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
MUCH DRIER AIR QUICKLY RUSHES IN FROM THE WEST...LEAVING THE LOW
LEVEL PRETTY DRY. SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY FORM DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH CHANCE LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF. THE FORCING QUICKLY
EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY EVENING. SECONDARY WAVE WOBBLES IN THE AREA
LATER MONDAY NIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN OUR AREA...
WITH ONLY SOME STRATOCUMULUS IN OUR FAR NORTH. COOLER AIR ALOFT
ARRIVES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...HOLDING HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE 50S ON TUESDAY WITH A VERY BRISK NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 20 TO 30
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MARK THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL READINGS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE SUPPORT IS LACKING AND GIVEN THE
DRY MID AND LOW LEVELS...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. RIDGING SHARPENS
OVER THE ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEK...WHILE TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER
AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AGAIN...DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST BUT TEMPERATURE DROP BELOW NORMALS IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 26/12Z AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALOFT. MARGINAL LLWS IN THE 10-14Z TIME
FRAME...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION IN THE FORECAST WHERE WINDS ALOFT
ARE STRONGEST. APPEARS AS THOUGH SOME MVFR STRATUS WILL ADVECT
NORTHWARD...AND WILL LIKELY SEE A SCT-BKN DECK THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY AT ALL THREE FORECAST SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



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