000
FXUS63 KFSD 170345
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1045 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
OVERALL THE EVENING SHOULD PROVE TO BE FAIRLY QUIET AS MOST OF THE
INSTABILITY REMAINS LOCKED UP TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. THE
ONGOING CLUSTER OF OCCASIONALLY SEVERE UPDRAFTS IN WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA HAS TOSSED A FAIRLY THICK BLANKET OF CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA. A MARGINAL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY EXISTS IN
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT JUST ENOUGH
THAT A SMALL POP IS STILL NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AS THE BLOW OFF FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PRETTY WEAK TO SUSPECT ANY NEW
UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA
AND STORM MOTION SHOULD TAKE THESE STORMS AWAY FROM THE CWA.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH TONIGHT WHICH WILL
KEEP WINDS SLIGHTLY MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING
WARMER READINGS IN THE MORNING AND WILL AIM FOR MID 50S AROUND HURON
TO THE LOWER 60S IN NORTHWEST IOWA. WITH THE SLIGHT COOLER AIR IN
PLACE ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER BUT STILL WARM.
UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE REGION.  WITH LOW DEW POINTS AND LIGHT
WINDS...HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES MONDAY NIGHT.
DEW POINTS START TO CREEP UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS RETURN FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASES AND GULF OPENS UP.  OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN
ELEVATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WORKING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.  CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND WITH DIRTY ZONAL FLOW RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CONVECTIVE
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.  FRIDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS APPEARS TO BE NORTH AND
SATURDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS APPEARS TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AS COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY WORKS SOUTH.  BOUNDARY MOVEMENT APPEARS TO BE QUITE
WEAK....AND MAINLY DRIVEN BY CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION IS SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA LATE TONIGHT. MVFR VSBYS
ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP...AND MAY AFFECT THE
KSUX TAF SITE. WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...