Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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265
FXUS63 KFSD 221737
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1237 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Minor shortwave moving through the region this morning will bring an
increased risk of light snow to the CWA through the day. Isentropic
lift along the 290K surface will spread northeast this morning,
fighting the influence of continued sub-cloud layer dry air
advection from the northeast, and a rather narrow moisture channel
in the mid-levels.  Nevertheless, should see an area of light
snow, mixing with rain at times move through the CWA, focusing the
highest PoPs west of I-29, and decreasing PoPs further east as
the shortwave slides away from the area. Any accumulation of snow
should be rather limited, and will quickly melt this afternoon.

Tonight: A surface warm front will begin to lift northward
overnight, and should prevent any major drop in temperatures. With
increasing 925:850mb flow from the south, low level moisture should
begin to thicken quickly overnight. With broad but weak isentropic
lift arriving by midnight, chances increase for very light rain and
or drizzle into daybreak.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Moisture definitely will be pooling across the area Thursday morning
providing favorable conditions for rain throughout the day into
Friday.  However, the models have continued with the tendency of
dropping the wave further south and therefore moving the heavy
rain axis further south as well. It still looks favorable for
areas along and south of I-90 to experience periods of moderate
rainfall late Thursday afternoon through Friday. Areas to the
north will see rain, but it looks like and may only be in the form
of drizzle. All is dependent on the location the dynamics. Other
concern is any convection that develops to our south that may rob
a lot of the moisture, but at this point will continue with the
better chances of rain with some areas possibly picking up an inch
or so of rainfall.

Models are also a little slower in recent runs on clearing out the
moisture.  So what appeared to be a decent weekend sun-wise, but
still relatively cool, now looks like a cloudy, damp weekend.

Fairly active weather pattern continues into next week with the next
weather maker coming into the area Wednesday into Thursday. Rainfall
early on looks to be mainly in the MO River valley region and then
spreads northeast with time.  Doesn`t appear at this time to be a
big precip producer, but definitely a continuation of the cloudy,
damp conditions across the area.

Not much change in the temperature department through the extended
with highs mainly in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

VFR conditions through about midnight other than a fast moving
band of very light preciptiation which should move through
southwest MN and northwest IA by 21z. After about 6-9z MVFR and
IFR ceilings will spread north and remain in palce the remainder
of the period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...Heitkamp
AVIATION...08



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