111
FXUS64 KFWD 071037
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
537 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Overnight the storms up in Oklahoma did well to not cross the Red
River, keeping this morning quiet and dry. An approaching cold
front is currently draped to our northwest, along a Midland-
Frederick-OKC line. This is easily seen by the differences in
surface observations, with Frederick, Oklahoma currently 59/54
while Wichita Falls is still 73/71! The front will continue to sag
south through the rest of the morning, clearing out the overnight
stratus and eventually stalling across Central Texas as it loses
the upper level support. Even with the presence of the front,
North and Central Texas will still be able to warm up into the 80s
region- wide this afternoon.

No wholesale changes were made to the morning forecast package
aside from including observations and new model guidance. The
previous short term forecast discussion remains valid.

Prater

Previous Discussion:
/Today through Wednesday Afternoon/

A relatively quiet day has come to an end with little to no showers
and storms to be had across the region. While the evening 00Z FWD
sounding showed a very unstable atmosphere, storm development was
quite lacking as the necessary source of lift remained well to
our north. Up in Oklahoma, discrete storms and clusters continue
to zipper south along the dryline, and are progged to move east
through the rest of the overnight hours. CAM guidance continues to
confine storm chances to just north of the Red River, but we
cannot rule out the low possibility that a storm may develop a bit
more south in our northern tier of counties through this morning.
Elsewhere will continue to remain dry.

Otherwise, a cold front will continue its southward trek as a
shortwave disturbance swings around the periphery of the main upper
low. This frontal passage will ultimately result in a temporary
northwest wind shift through the first half of this afternoon.
The front will eventually stall across the region as its upper
level support ejects to the northeast. Even in the presence of the
stalled front, afternoon temperatures region-wide will be able to
climb into the 80s as little cold air advection is expected post-
front. Later towards early evening, deepening low surface
pressure to our northwest will shift winds back to the south and
urge the front northward as a warm front in response. This will
place all of North and Central Texas back into the warm sector
with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s expected once again going into
midweek. Guidance is continuing to pick up on the potential for
isolated storms in Central Texas this evening, but has backed off
some in the most current runs. The inhibition to storm development
today is a lack of appreciable lift overhead, and so have not
included mentionable precipitation chances this afternoon and
evening.

Our next chance at severe weather will be on Wednesday as a
sharpening dryline just to our west will become a focus for storm
initiation as another shortwave moves across the Central Plains and
spreads forcing for ascent over the region. The dryline should
gradually move east over the course of the afternoon, eventually
ending up closer to I-35 later in the day. Scattered storms are
expected along and ahead of this boundary through the end of the
short term period. Forecast soundings show steepening lapse rates
and abundant instability and deep layer shear, indicative of
strong to severe storms primarily capable of large to very large
hail and damaging winds.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 316 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024/
/Wednesday Night Onward/

A cold front will continue to sag south through the forecast area
Wednesday night into Thursday as a positive tilt trough drops
southeast from the Plains to the Mississippi Valley. Precipitation
will come to an end Wednesday night with the loss of instability
and the exit of the trough. Convection may reignite Thursday
afternoon across Central and East Texas in the vicinity of the
front, however, as a trailing disturbance approaches. Thursday`s
storms (some of which will be severe based on the high levels of
CAPE and effective shear in place) will exit to the south and east
Thursday night as the front receives a stronger southward push
and heads for South Texas and the northwest Gulf.

This will set the stage for a nice start to the weekend as cooler
and drier air enters with the cold front. Friday and Saturday
highs in the 70s will be generally 5 to 10 degrees below normal,
while nighttime lows from the mid 50s to lower 60s will be 3 to 5
degrees below normal.

Return flow will begin on Sunday as the post-frontal surface
ridge heads for the Central Gulf Coast. Clouds will be on the
increase during the day Sunday as a cut-off low over the Desert
Southwest advances east. Moisture return will be initially
minimal, but scattered showers should become possible by Sunday
evening across our western and southern counties as both moisture
and lift gradually increase. Better rain chances will occur
Monday and Monday night as the upper low crosses the Texas
Panhandle, with rain and storm chances continuing through next
Tuesday as the low transitions to an open trough while moving east
through the Plains.

Weak flow aloft and modest instability should mitigate the
potential for severe weather Sunday and Monday. Strengthening
shear and better instability will increase the severe potential
for next Tuesday, though it is a bit too soon to narrow down all
severe weather parameters. Either way, rain and storm chances
will continue through the middle of next week as a second upper
trough passes through the region. A mid level ridge will then
develop overhead late next week, possibly bringing another lull in
rain chances.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

MVFR stratus will persist at the majority of the TAF sites (sans
FTW/AFW) for the next several hours along with south-southwest
winds until a cold front moves through this morning. Expect FROPA
and northeasterly winds around 14Z for D10 and 16Z for ACT. The
front will quickly be drawn back up northward late in the
afternoon as a warm front, bringing southerly winds and a
smattering of low VFR clouds back to the sites. There is a very
low chance for precipitation to occur around ACT late this
afternoon and evening, but probabilities are too low and
uncertainty is too high to include in the TAF.

Another surge of MVFR stratus is expected at the TAF sites
overnight tonight, and will last until the afternoon before
scattering out.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    88  72  90  68  79 /   0   5  20  20  20
Waco                86  72  88  70  82 /   0  10  20  10  20
Paris               86  69  87  64  80 /   5  10  30  30  20
Denton              85  69  89  64  79 /   0   0  10  10  20
McKinney            86  71  88  66  79 /   0   0  20  20  20
Dallas              89  72  90  68  80 /   0   5  20  20  20
Terrell             86  71  87  67  80 /   5   5  20  20  30
Corsicana           88  73  89  70  84 /   5  10  20  10  30
Temple              87  71  88  69  83 /   5  10  10   5  30
Mineral Wells       86  69  90  63  78 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$