201
FXUS65 KGGW 010846
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
246 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain shower chances with isolated thunderstorms will develop
  this afternoon and diminish in most areas after sunset this
  evening.

- Cold front Thursday morning brings rain and snow showers with
  isolated thunderstorms. The chances for rain and snow showers
  continue through Friday.

- Nighttime temperatures will drop below freezing in many areas
  tonight through Friday night.

- Another round of rain showers are expected next week, starting
  late Sunday.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A slow moving upper level low will be along the Montana/Canada
border until Friday. Look for cool temperatures with frequent
chances for precipitation. Atmosphere will be unstable enough this
afternoon and Thursday afternoon for thunderstorms in some areas.
Temperatures aloft on Thursday behind the cold front will be cold
enough for a mix of rain and snow showers. The chances for rain
and snow showers continue until the low moves to the east Friday
evening. NBM does have a 50 percent chance of 2 inches of snow in
the higher elevations of the Little Rockies around Zortman between
tonight and Friday morning. Otherwise, the probability of one inch
of snow is less than 15 percent.

Upper ridge this weekend will allow for mainly dry weather and
warmer temperatures.

The next trough/low is expected early next week. This system
could be a prolific rain-maker as it stalls over the area,
possibly starting off May with above normal rainfall. This should
help out the farmers/ranchers as April was drier than normal for
most of of the CWA.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

Confidence is medium that there will be rain showers this
afternoon but low on specific locations and where any
thunderstorms could occur. Confidence is high on the showers
behind the cold front on Thursday but whether it will be rain or
snow showers at a given point and time will depend on
temperatures. Low confidence on the possibility of thunderstorms
on Thursday. Medium confidence the rain/snow showers continuing
through Friday.

High confidence on the dry weather on Saturday and rain occurring
sometime early next week with lower confidence on the timing and
rainfall amounts.


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0840Z, Wednesday morning May 1.

FLIGHT CAT: VFR.

DISCUSSION: Mostly clear this morning will gradually fill in with
mid level clouds today. Mid level clouds will remain over the area
tonight. Low clouds move in behind and cold front Thursday morning
with MVFR ceilings possible. Unstable atmosphere this afternoon
and evening will allow for scattered rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

WIND: West winds 5 to 10 knots become WSW 5 to 15 knots this
afternoon. Winds will vary from SE to SW less than 10 knots
tonight.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow