785
FXUS63 KGID 091129
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
629 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs today in the mid 60s to low 70s with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible (15-30%) along/north of I-80.

- Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (30-65%) Saturday
  night through the middle of next week.

- Highs in the 70s to low 80s this weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Today and Tonight...

Highs today will be in the mid 60s to low 70s. Winds will be breezy
during the day, with northerly winds gusting 20 to 25 mph. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible (15-30%) this afternoon
and evening for areas mainly along and north of Interstate 80.
Showers and thunderstorms will begin to decrease in coverage
around sunset with the loss of daytime heating, however a few
showers/storms may linger till around midnight. Most areas are
expected to remain dry, with areas that do receive rain seeing
accumulations generally under 0.10 inches. Lows tonight will be
in the mid 40s.

Friday and Saturday...

The upper level low which has meandered over the Plains over the
past few days will become split in two on Friday. Part of the low
will continue to progress east as it gets picked up by a trough
dipping over the Midwest, and the other part of the low will become
cut-off over the southwestern U.S. This split will allow for
northwest flow to build aloft along with a stretch of dry weather
for the area. Highs on Friday will be in the low 70s with breezy
northerly winds. Saturday will be warmer with highs in the mid to
upper 70s.

Saturday night through Wednesday...

As the cut-off low over the Desert southwest rejoins the broader
jetstream, chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the area.
Saturday night will see precipitation chances increase from west to
east across the area. The highest precipitation chances in this
forecast period are during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday
30% (north) to 65% (south). The previously cut-off low will move off
to the east Monday night, with chances for showers/storms coming to
an end overnight. Severe weather is not expected this weekend due to
weak instability and shear.

An approaching trough over the Rockies will bring additional
chances (25-50%) for scattered showers/storms to the area
through the middle of next week. Model confidence begins to
decrease at the end of this forecast period, with the 00z GFS
and ECMWF disagreeing on the timing and strength of this
approaching trough. Highs Sunday through the middle of next week
will be slightly above normal (upper 60s to low 70s), with
highs each day in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected through the TAF period.
There is a low chance (10%) of MVFR CIGS this morning, but
generally clouds that filter through should remain at or above
6k ft AGL during the period, potentially as low as 4k ft AGL
overnight tonight.

Winds will be out of the north to northwest through the period,
starting at 8-10 kts then increasing to 12-15 kts by 16Z. Winds
will diminish to 6-8 kts this evening and overnight.

There is a low chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms over
the TAF sites this afternoon and early evening, but chances are
low enough (~15%) that a mention in the TAF was not warranted at
this time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Hickford