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000
FXUS63 KGLD 210340
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
940 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog may develop along and north of Interstate 70
  in northeast Colorado and adjacent Kansas border counties
  Sunday morning.

- Near to above average temperatures are forecast for Sunday and
  beyond. There could be daily small chances for rain/storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Light snow continues to move across the area due to a
combination of weak embedded waves in zonal flow aloft and
isentropic lift on 295 K surface. HREF suggesting another wave
of light snow early this evening moving into northeast Colorado
and areas west of Highway 25 as isentropic lift persists. HREF
also shows an area of light rain and snow overnight and into
early Sunday morning in parts of northwest Kansas as a shortwave
trough drops out of central Nebraska in developing northwest
flow. Additional precipitation amounts tonight will be very
light and not expected to be impactful. In addition, areas of
fog will continue in northeast Colorado/adjacent counties in
Kansas and Nebraska through the night. The fog may be dense at
times, but not enough confidence in areal coverage for an
advisory. Low temperatures will be around 30.

After morning clouds and fog move out, Sunday will see clearing
by mid to late afternoon as ridge builds in from the west. High
temperatures will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows
Sunday night in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Breezy south winds
Sunday night may gust up to 30 mph at times.

Upper ridge flattens out on Monday with a weak disturbance
rotating around and upper low in the northern plains. Associated
surface cold front will be located roughly along Interstate 70
at 21z Monday afternoon. Any convection that develops along the
front Monday afternoon and evening will only have a few hundred
joules of CAPE to work with despite decent deep layer shear.
Best chance of seeing a thunderstorm will be in southeast areas,
Hill City to Gove, but severe storms are not expected.
Precipitation chances should end around midnight. High
temperatures will range from the middle 70s behind the front in
northern areas to the middle 80s ahead of it. Still seeing low
relative humidity in the afternoon ahead of the front for areas
south of Interstate 70 and west of Highway 25, but probabilities
for wind gusts greater than 25 mph have gone down in that area.
So, may end up with near critical conditions rather than
critical for a few hours ahead of the front. Do not see much
wind with the front.

Upper ridge builds across the area on Tuesday with slightly
cooler temperatures due to post frontal northeast surface winds.
Highs will range from the middle 60s to around 70. Weak
shortwave moves through the ridge out of Colorado Tuesday night
which will bring a chance for showers. NBM wants to add isolated
thunder but with zero SBCAPE and zero MUCAPE not sure will see
any convection. 12-hour mean precipitation amounts Tuesday night
are only a few hundredths of an inch. Low temperatures will be
in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A fairly active pattern looks to be in store for the long-
term. Wednesday, a ridge will move over the region allowing us
to warm into the low 70s. A low pressure system will force the
ridge out, but when is the big question.

The GFS has a well defined upper-level low pressure system
moving through the area Thursday afternoon/evening. The ECMWF
and CMC-NH delay this feature about 12-18 hours. However, at 850
mb, all three show a low pressure system moving across the area
between 0-12Z Friday, suggesting another (potential) nocturnal
event. SPC has placed a 15% severe weather outlook for our
eastern area for this timeframe. There is good agreement that an
850 mb moist conveyor belt will setup around Thursday 6Z,
feeding Gulf moisture into the eastern 1/3 to 2/3 if the CWA,
and continue until the cold front attached to the low moves
through. Confidence is low (<15%) for timing of this event, but
anywhere from Thursday afternoon to Friday evening looks to be
fair game.

In the far western CWA Thursday afternoon, west of the dryline
(wherever it may setup) conditions look favorable for near
critical fire weather conditions. RH values in the mid teens
with wind gusts around 25 kts could put about 1/3 of Cheyenne
county Colorado into Red Flag territory. Confidence of Red Flag
criteria is about 15%.

Winds will generally be southerly, save for Friday when they
will be northwesterly behind the FROPA. Pressure changes with
this system do not seem to be as strong as what they were last
week, thus current confidence for High Wind is less than 10%.
The generally southerly winds will allow us to keep temperatures
a bit warmer overall. Thursday is expected to see mid 70s to
mid 80s. Friday and Saturday are expected to cool off, with
highs in the 70s. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 40s
to low 50s ahead of the cold front; behind the FROPA, we will
see lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

A weak ridge looks to build in from the southeast Friday night
and Saturday morning which will clear out any remaining
precipitation. This happens just ahead of another low pressure
system that guidance is showing will impact the area around
Saturday night. Due to how far away the event is, climatology,
and forecast temperature trend, we cannot rule out some more
snow showers or severe weather moving over the area with this
second system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 935 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

GLD: MVFR conditions are expected to deteriorate to IFR-LIFR in
association with low ceilings and/or fog overnight. Significant
improvement is not anticipated to occur until late Sunday
morning, when ceilings will lift to MVFR.. scattering out to VFR
during the early afternoon. VFR conditions will persist
thereafter.. through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will
remain light and variable through Sunday morning.. shifting to
the S-SSW and increasing to 10-15 knots mid-late Sunday
afternoon.

MCK: VFR conditions may deteriorate to MVFR-IFR (in association
with low ceilings) for a period overnight. Improvement is
expected to occur by sunrise.. with VFR conditions prevailing
through the duration of the TAF period. Winds will remain light
and variable through early-mid Sunday afternoon.. eventually
shifting to the S-SSW and increasing to 10-15 knots late Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Vincent