Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 271852
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
252 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will develop along a stalled frontal boundary over
the eastern Carolinas, keeping clouds and intermittent rain
along and east of Interstate 77 through early Thursday then the
front will move to the East Coast. Drier and warmer weather is
expected Friday into the first part of next week.  A cold front is
forecast to reach our region from the northwest in the middle of the
week bringing another chance of rain and cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday: Overcast skies remain in place across
the eastern half of the area while mostly sunny skies are noted
across the western half of the area this afternoon. Light rain has
redeveloped again for areas near/along the I-77 corridor this
afternoon. Have likely PoPs across these zones to account for this
activity lingering through the late afternoon hours. No thunder is
present within this activity, but isolated lightning strikes remain
possible through this afternoon as daytime heating increases.
However, thick cloud cover should limit this potential somewhat, so
capped thunder chances to slight chance for now. Highs will end up a
few degrees above climo across the western zones thanks to mostly
sunny skies, and a few to several degrees below climo across the
eastern zones thanks to mostly cloud skies.

CAMs show rain chances lingering across the eastern zones this
evening into early Thursday morning. The last several runs of the
HRRR keep rain chances confined to the far eastern zones while the
last few runs of the NAMNest pushes rain farther west and across the
eastern two-thirds of the forecast area. With high-res guidance not
in great agreement regarding the coverage of rain, capped PoPs to
low-end likely this evening into Thursday morning. Also kept the
highest PoPs confined to areas near/along the I-77 corridor since
these areas are most likely to see rain. With cloud cover expected
to fill back in across the western zones this evening into tonight,
lows should end up around 3-6 degrees above climo across the
forecast area. Winds will gradually increase overnight becoming
breezy, especially across the mountains.

Dry high pressure will build into the area from the west on
Thursday, allowing rain chances push east of the I-77 corridor by
the mid-morning hours. This will also allow cloud cover to gradually
decrease from west to east throughout the day behind a departing
cold front. Breezy winds will linger through Thursday, but will
remain well below advisory criteria. RH values look to drop into the
20s across the mountain valleys and east of the mountains Thursday
afternoon. This combined with breezy winds may lead to fire wx
concerns, especially across northeast Georgia. Highs will end up a
few degrees below climo across the forecast area Thursday afternoon
thanks to cooler air filtering in behind the departing front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1210 PM EDT Wednesday: Post-frontal drying continues Thursday
night and under a clear sky, temperatures will fall quickly. The
loss of post-frontal winds will allow the atmosphere to decouple and
give way to good radiative cooling with pockets of frost possible by
daybreak.  Deep layered dry air to result in sunshine for Friday as
downslope aided warming boosts piedmont maximums to around 70. We
are shaping up to be under a deep and warming westerly flow into
Saturday with lower elevation maximum temperatures climbing into the
middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Wednesday: Low amplitude upper ridging remains in
place to start off the period with warm sector and downslope warming
boosting piedmont max temperatures into the lower 80s for Easter
Sunday.  Token small pop will be maintained for NW NC closer to the
developing ohio valley baroclinic zone.  Upper heights are progged
to rise even further to start off the work week/April atop the SE
CONUS.   Expect a mostly suppressed atmosphere on Monday, with
further warming, a few degrees above persistence. Just like
Sunday, token later day shower chances will be maintained for NW
NC.

During the latter half of the period, energy diving into the central
CONUS will eject eastward, driving a robust cold front into and
through the cwfa.  It is probable that ridging will hang tough into
Tuesday resulting in another warm day in the piedmont with
diurnally enhanced storms firing around the ridge periphery, in
the NC mtns. Latest timing of a early cold fropa next Wednesday
may enhance storms east of the cwfa, we`ll see.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere...Conditions have been gradually improving
across most of the terminals this afternoon, with the exception of
KCLT and KHKY, where IFR cigs remain. VFR conditions are in place
elsewhere. Light rain has redeveloped this afternoon across the
eastern half of the CWA and is expected to mainly impact KCLT. Thus,
have VCSH during the early afternoon hours with a TEMPO for -RA late
this afternoon into early this evening. There is still the potential
for some isolated embedded thunder at KCLT this afternoon, but
confidence remains too low to mention in the TAF. KHKY should see
cigs lift to MVFR levels later this afternoon. Winds will remain NE
(east of the mountains) and WNW (across the mountains) through late
this evening. There may be a brief lull in -RA this evening before
-RA chances return yet again late tonight into early Thursday
morning. So, have a PROB30 for -RA from 0400Z-1000Z Thursday.
Confidence on -RA chances remains low as models are not in great
agreement regarding the coverage/timing of -RA. IFR cigs are
expected to linger through late tonight at KCLT, with cigs lifting
to MVFR levels by ~0800-1000Z. Winds overnight will gradually turn N
east of the mountains while remaining WNW across the mountains. Wind
speeds will gradually increase overnight with low-end gusts expected
at KAVL and KGMU prior to daybreak. Drier weather and VFR conditions
will return at KCLT by mid-morning Thursday. For the rest of the
terminals, dry conditions are expected this afternoon into Thursday.
VFR should prevail outside of KCLT this evening into Thursday as
well. Winds will remain WNW in the mountains and N east of the
mountains on Thursday, with low-end gusts expected across the
majority of the terminals, with the exception of KAND. Cloud cover
will gradually decrease throughout the day Thursday.

Outlook: VFR conditions will linger across the terminals through the
weekend thanks to dry high pressure over the region.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...AR


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