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000
FXUS62 KGSP 181742
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
142 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday as a cold front
crosses the area, but unseasonably warm weather continues through
Saturday.  Below-normal temperatures and widespread light rain is
expected Sunday with cool but drier weather on Monday. Drier and
warmer weather will return to the area Tuesday through Thursday
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 615 am Thursday: Lots of deep layered dry air atop the region
today along with a building s/wv upper ridge will support near
record high temperatures, averaging 12-14 deg F above the mid-April
normals. Expect the mean flow to back to a more westerly direction
as mid-CONUS s/wv energy approaches, spreading in considerable
mid/upper clouds back in this evening.  We expect to be monitoring
the progress of eastward moving tstms as convection allowing models
propagate activity, albeit in a weakened state, into the mountains
after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Thursday: A weak cold front will be approaching from
the west at the beginning of the period Friday morning underneath
weak shortwave energy rapidly propagating within zonal flow aloft.
The latest CAM guidance suggests that showers and possibly a few
weak thunderstorms will be ongoing, with an area of activity
likely associated with the upper-level energy departing the
southeastern zones early Friday morning as decaying convection
enters the mountain zones from the north and west along the front.
With little to no instability, the Friday morning activity will
quickly dissipate across the area.  However, some reactivation along
the front is expected Friday afternoon if we can evacuate enough
of the cloud debris from the morning convection and sufficiently
destabilize.  Initial development is expected across the mountains
where the best chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected,
but the instability there is expected to be weakest.  For now,
forecast soundings support SBCAPE of 750-1250 J/kg across the
Piedmont, with the highest values further south and west over the
western Upstate and Savannah River Valley as high temperatures
once again reach the mid-80s.  Steep low- to mid-level lapse
rates and 0-6km bulk shear values of 30-40 kts are sufficient
enough to support strong to severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon,
especially east of the mountains.  The profiles are supportive of
strong downdrafts and hail with deep-layer mixing, ample dry air
aloft, and sufficient instability within the hail growth zone.
At this time, however, a lack of large-scale forcing within the
zonal flow aloft suggests that coverage will be limited and that
any storms that develop will be isolated to widely scattered in
nature. Given the expected coverage and storm-motion, rainfall is
not expected to be appreciable overall.

The front clears out of the area Friday night, but the modified
airmass behind the front will not result in a significant cool down
for Saturday.  Isolated showers and perhaps a general thunderstorm
are possible across the Upstate Saturday afternoon with ample
low-level moisture in place, but the profiles are not supportive
of strong convection given poor lapse rates.  With mostly cloudy
skies expected for much of the day on Saturday, high temperatures
will top out in the lower to mid-70s or slightly above normal in
the mountain valleys and near 80 across the Piedmont, which is
still 4-6 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thursday: The weather pattern remains unsettled
to begin the extended period as a low-amplitude southern stream
shortwave trough ejects out of the southern Rockies and rapidly
propagates across the southern tier during the day on Sunday.
Surface high pressure behind this shortwave will reinforce a
northerly flow across our area as isentropic lift ahead of the
shortwave induces widespread light showers across the region.
With dewpoints in the 40s, these showers will support dynamic
cooling of the low-levels and the development of in-situ CAD.
Therefore, temperatures will struggle to rise much from morning lows
as rainfall develops during the daytime hours.  The result will be
a dramatic change in the sensible weather with high temperatures
about 12-14 degrees below normal, struggling to reach the upper
50s in the mountain valleys and the lower 60s across the Piedmont.

CAD will persist into Monday while a stronger northern stream
shortwave trough crosses over the area Monday afternoon, resulting
in another chance of light showers across the region.  For now
guidance is suggesting temperatures will moderate a bit without a
source region of cool air, resulting in highs a few degrees warmer
than they were on Sunday but still 8-10 degrees below normal.
However, with lower thicknesses due to the shortwave trough,
mostly cloudy skies, and light precipitation, it would not be a
surprise to see these highs drift a degree or two lower in future
forecast packages.  This sets us up for a chilly Monday night
and Tuesday morning.  Frost is not out of the question for higher
mountain elevations where low temperatures are expected to reach
the mid- to upper 30s.

With the shortwave energy rapidly propagating offshore by
Tuesday, we will dry out and warm up as we head into the middle
of the work week.  High temperatures will return to near normal
Tuesday afternoon under mostly sunny skies. Temps will max out 3-5
degrees above normal on Wednesday as we tap into a bit of southerly
return flow on the west side of Atlantic high pressure ahead of an
approaching cold front from the north and west. The proximity of
the weak cold front across the Ohio Valley Wednesday afternoon and
evening reintroduces slight chance PoPs across the mountain zones,
but overall the area will remain relatively quiet and dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Ridgetop cumulus and patchy cirrus will
continue through the afternoon. Winds are a little squirrelly,
varying between SW to NW. Winds are "supposed" to be NW this
afternoon but aren`t cooperating. Went with current conditions at
each site, but they could switch from time to time. Expect mid and
high clouds to increase overnight as a frontal system approaches
from the west. Guidance is all over the place on potential for any
convection to move in overnight as well. Have gone with a blend for
the timing which brings a chance of showers to KAVL toward daybreak,
then KGMU/KGSP/KHKY a little after daybreak, and KCLT TSRA for the
afternoon. KAVL also gets prevailing SHRA for late morning. KAND may
miss out on the convection, but that`s far from certain. Expect
generally low VFR, but MVFR is possible in any heavier showers or
storms.

Outlook: Unsettled conditions are expected to continue into the
weekend, and possibly Monday, with periodic precip/possible TS and
restrictions. Drier conditions return for Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 04-18

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      90 1896     44 1921     60 1927     28 1905
                                        1891
   KCLT      93 1896     45 1983     66 1896     32 2001
   KGSP      89 2002     51 1983     66 1927     28 1905
                1967

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...JMP
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...RWH
CLIMATE...