Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 160438
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1138 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New AVIATION, CLIMATE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

And we are off! Cloud cover scattered out enough this morning for
the sun to heat up the surface. This has allowed the atmosphere to
recover from any showers and storms this morning, and with CAPE
values in 3000-4500 J/kg, shear values exceeding 50kts and no CIN,
storms have already begun to fire up this afternoon. Multiple severe
thunderstorm warnings are in effect and a severe thunderstorm watch
is in effect for the entire CWA through 8pm. Expect coverage to wane
closer to 8-9pm, with cloudy skies and a few showers possible
overnight

Similar story expected tomorrow as the front stalls across SE Texas.
SPC has areas south of I-10 and West of I-45 in a Slight Risk of
severe weather with the rest of the area in a Marginal Risk. Primary
hazards, again, will be damaging wind and hail. In addition to the
severe weather threat, storms may produce heavy rains and result in
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding, particularly in
low-lying areas and areas with poor drainage.

Continue to monitor the forecast over the weekend as the severe
weather and flood threat continues, and have multiple ways to
receive alerts!

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Stalled/meandering frontal boundary will still be a thorn in our
side Sunday. Combination of this boundary, plenty of moisture
availability, upper impulses moving overhead, some coastal troffing,
and a favorable jet position should lead to continuing
shower/thunderstorm chances thru most of the day. Too early to fine
tune the details in regard to severe/heavy rain chances, but worth
monitoring across the southern half of the area at least.

The front gets a southward push late in the day Sunday and Sunday
night which will bring rain chances to and end and usher in some
drier and more seasonable wx into early-midweek.

High pressure then transitions to the east and onshore winds draw
Gulf moisture back into the area. Medium range solutions still have
varying opinions as to when the cutoff trof/low near the Desert
Southwest opens up and translates across the Plains/Texas. Once it
does, we should see our next decent chances of precip ahead of its
associated Pacific front (probably Thursday-ish).  47

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities should fill back into the area
overnight with lighter winds in place. Will show slow improvement
(lifting ceilings and rising visibilities) heading into tomorrow
afternoon. Seeing some SHRA/TSRA currently off to our W and well
off to our SW. Will monitor the trends of this activity to see if
they edge into our TAF sites. For now, will carry VCSH beginning at
10Z for LBX and GLS, VCSH beginning at 18Z SGR to CXO, and VCTS
beginning at 18Z for UTS and CLL. Could stay active with SHRA/TSRA
into the evening hours across parts of the area. Will adjust TAFs
(ceilings, visibilities and SHRA/TSRA coverage) as we begin to see
how this all unfolds.

42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Galveston Beach Patrol is reporting strong rips along area beaches
so will maintain high risk of rip statement thru 9pm. Seas should be
on a slow downward trend so the threat shouldn`t be quite as high
tomorrow...but something spring breakers should be aware of.

Periods of sea fog will also remain a good possibility...primarily
from the beaches into the Gulf thru Sunday morning. It could sneak
into the southern parts of the bays during the overnight hours...but
probably not quite as prevalent.

Otherwise, a primarily east wind in the 8-15kt range should
prevail thru most of the weekend along with 3-5ft seas ahead of a
nearly stalled frontal boundary situated further inland. A series
of disturbances will pass overhead, and produce periods of
showers and thunderstorms...some of which could be on the stronger
side...moreso nearshore waters/bays than well offshore. Though
timing is difficult, one can probably expect decent chances later
this afternoon and evening, maybe another round late in the day
Saturday, then again Sunday morning into much of the day.

The front should get a southward push offshore Sunday night followed
by 15-25kt NE winds and some drier/cooler wx. Small Craft Advisories
are likely in its wake.

Light onshore flow resumes Tuesday, slightly increasing by midweek
along with the return of shower/thunderstorm chances. 47

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Here are the daily rainfall records (inches/year)for Saturday (3/16)
and Sunday (3/17).

  College Station  Houston  Houston Hobby  Galveston    Palacios

Sat: 1.84/1979   2.83/1896    2.28/1998    2.71/1944   2.65/1944
Sun: 1.48/1988   2.57/1957    5.00/1957    2.96/1957   1.83/1997

42

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  65  74  62  71 /  20  80  70  60
Houston (IAH)  65  77  65  75 /  50  70  70  70
Galveston (GLS)  65  72  64  72 /  50  30  70  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ350-355.

&&

$$


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