800
FXUS64 KHGX 291751
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1251 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Dangerous flash flooding is ongoing across portions of the region
as training showers and thunderstorms slowly sag southward across
the region. With a swath of 5-7" rain and localized 10+ across
northern parts, rivers are on the rise...some forecast into moderate
flood stage. Even though rain will be ending, water will be slow
to recede and the reminder to not drive thru flooded roadways
stands.

The stronger llvl jet that has been feeding deep Gulf moisture
into the line is in the process of shifting to the east. Expect
the cold pool to eventually push the majority of ongoing convection
off the coast and to the ese as we head into the sunrise hours. In
the meantime, southern parts of the CWA should anticipate some
isolated strong-severe storms and locally heavy rain. Will
maintain Flood Watch as is into mid morning for messaging
purposes. Though the metro area itself is not within the Watch,
this does not mean there will not be some isolated impacts...in
fact - one can probably expect a few issues (localized street
flooding, etc). HRRR, which has done an excellent job with this
event, still shows the potential for some small pockets of 2-5"
totals along/south of a Cleveland-Angleton line.

The boundary pushes offshore this morning with clearing/fair wx
emerging in its wake by the mid morning and afternoon hours.
Pressures fall the the west, and southeast winds will resume and
drive it, and associated deeper Gulf moisture back into the area
Tuesday. Will probably see some sct shra/tstm development across
sw/s parts of the CWA during the day into early evening.  47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A continued challenging and somewhat unsettled fcst for the extended.
Some subtle mid level ridging will nudge the trajectory of a series
of upper level impulses in the emerging sw flow aloft to favor
the northern half of the region. Can`t pinpoint any single disturbance
or timeframe, but combination of those plus 1.7-2.0" PW`s, daytime
heating, and seabreeze should keep chances of shra/tstms in the
fcst pretty much on a daily basis during the second half of the
work week and the weekend. More concerning is the potential for
another weak frontal boundary to sag into the region around Friday
and potentially stall. Regardless, soils across several parts of
the area will be saturated and prone to quicker runoff with any
additional moderate-heavy rain that decides to develop. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

MVFR CIGS should scatter/lift over the next several hours with VFR
conditions resuming later this afternoon. Light winds this
afternoon will gradually veer east/southeasterly this evening.
Lower cloud decks settle in later tonight, with MVFR/IFR CIGS/Fog
developing overnight through the early morning hours of Tuesday.
Recent heavy rainfall across the Brazos Valley/Piney woods area
may allow for lower CIGS/VIS to develop during this early morning
period. All Fog/CIGS should clear out during the late
morning/early afternoon on Tuesday. Afterwards, VFR conditions
and southeast winds prevail through the end of the TAF period.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Small craft advisories and high risk of rips will continue today.
Strong to severe cells are in the process of approaching the
coast and should be moving offshore during the early and mid
morning hours. Look for strong winds and variable directions along
with chaotic seas as this occurs. A long fetch of southeast winds
has been in place for several days and although winds will
generally be lower into midweek, seas should remain on the
elevated side for a good portion of the week. Periods of unsettled
weather are possible, though better shower and thunderstorm
chances should be situated a bit further inland. 47

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Rivers will be on the rise...some well into moderate flood
territory as heavy rain continues to runoff into area watersheds.
Additional chances of rain are in the forecast throughout a good
part of the week. General trajectories of the upper level
disturbances into mid-late week appear to be over the same
locations we saw overnight. Nothing screams anywhere as extreme as
what we are experiencing, though any additional heavy rain over
saturated soils will quickly runoff and cause further river responses
that`ll need to be monitored with time. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  86  67  84  71 /  10   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  86  69  85  71 /  30   0  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  78  71  79  73 /  90  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ370-
     375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...03
MARINE...47