Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 130835
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
335 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

The further development of a surface low over the OK Panhandle
region today will tighten the synoptic pressure gradient over the
South Central CONUS, amplifying WAA/moisture transport and thus
driving continued increases to both temperatures and dew points
over the next several days ahead of the approach of a surface cold
front. With midlevel winds also turning slightly to the SW, we
should see many locations breaking into the 80s this afternoon
while the immediate coast should reach the upper 70s. Aloft, a
weak shortwave trough is expected to traverse the region. Despite
this, along with abundant moisture availability, soundings
continue to indicate the presence of a stout midlevel capping
inversion that will be exceptionally difficult to overcome. As
such, for now, we do not anticipate anything in the way of
convection this afternoon. Widespread cloud coverage will help to
inhibit nocturnal cooling, as lows reach only the upper 60s and
perhaps may not drop below 70 for some areas.

Continued warming is expected on Thursday with the synoptic
pattern remaining relatively unchanged at the surface. Surface dew
points will continue their steady climb, breaking the 70 mark at
times across portions of the area and producing a summer-like day
for many as highs concurrently rise into the 80s. As a surface
cold front associated with the surface low pushes into the
Southern Plains and a midlevel disturbance again traverses the
region, rainfall chances will be on the increase during the
afternoon and evening. That being said, conditions look a bit less
favorable with this forecast package compared to the previous few
as low-level capping continues to remain present in model
soundings. Slightly more favorable conditions can be found across
the far northern zones, where SPC has still reduced the risk for
severe weather to Marginal (1/5). A few scattered storms will be
possible, along with some shower activity, but the bulk of this
activity should be concentrated to the north of I-10. Should a
stronger storm develop, the main threats would remain the
potential for hail and strong wind gusts. Overnight lows on
Thursday continue to sit near 70 with cloud cover remaining very
expansive.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

A wet and stormy weather pattern is expected to continue Friday
through much of the upcoming weekend.

In comparison to yesterday`s forecast, the cold front that was to
move across Southeast Texas on Friday morning and stall near the
coastal locations, now looks to stall further northward inland,
possibly closer to the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region. Over
the past few days, the GFS has been hinting at the front possibly
stalling more inland rather than the coast, whereas the ECMWF had
it pushing through into the nearshore Gulf waters. Now, however,
the ECMWF also shows the front stalling over our northern
portions. Models also suggest the frontal boundary meandering over
us through Saturday with a chance of it drifting into the coastal
waters late Saturday or early Sunday. For this forecast package,
went with the scenario of the front stalling over the northern
portions of Southeast Texas, although I would like a little more
consistency within the runs to tell you for sure if that is what
will play out.

On Friday, mid to upper level disturbances embedded in an upper
level trough situated over the CA/AZ/NV region will continue to
move across Southeast Texas. With plenty of moisture to work (PWs
of 1.4-1.7 inches), an unstable airmass in place, and the front
now remaining over our northern portions, it will not take much
for several more rounds of showers and thunderstorms to develop
for much of the day Friday. Now, forecast soundings do show
capping in place in the morning through possibly early afternoon,
which would be the one thing that may inhibit activity. Once the
cap erodes in the afternoon, however, it will not take much for
storms to build and increase in coverage...in particular for areas
north of the I-10 corridor.

There might be some decrease in rain activity Friday night, but
shower and thunderstorm development will once again be on the rise
Saturday. The front meanders over the local area during the day
and a possible coastal low near the southern Texas region may move
into our region later in the day. Several vort maxes will also be
passing through, in particular during the afternoon and evening
hours, which could help keep our PoPs fairly high that day. Some
of the models suggest PWs of 1.5 to 1.8 inches, and with how the
day is setting up, some folks could see periods of heavy rainfall
at times. Minor low lying/poor drainage areas and some minor
street flooding could occur. That said, the WPC has placed much of
Southeast Texas under a Slight Risk (2 out of 4 level) for
Excessive Rainfall for Saturday. The SPC has also placed a
Marginal Risk for Severe Weather (1 out of 5) level for the
northeast portions of Southeast Texas. Please continue to monitor
the latest forecast updates and be weather ready.

The front finally pushes into the Gulf waters on Sunday,
resulting in lower chances of rain, in particular for areas north
of I-10. High pressure over Texas and drier cooler air over
Southeast Texas will result in fairly tranquil conditions Monday
into Tuesday.

As for temperatures, warm and humid conditions will continue on
Friday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Rain and cloud coverage will help cool down
temperatures on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in highs in the
70s. The cooler air Monday into Tuesday will result in highs in
the 60s.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Conditions have been a bit slow to degrade, and most terminals are
still at VFR at 05Z. Still, full expectations that MVFR will
emerge as many FEW020ish decks are being reported, and those
should fill in shortly. With things taking some time to come down,
did get a touch more optimistic over the next several hours,
largely sitting at the IFR/MVFR threshold, rather than more fully
into IFR CIGs. Except for LBX and GLS at the coast, should see
gradual improvement back to VFR by afternoon, along with gusty
S/SE winds again. Then back down to low MVFR or high IFR again
after dark.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Light to moderate onshore winds are expected to prevail through
the end of the work week and may flirt with caution levels at
times. Areas of patchy sea fog is possible for the bays and Gulf
waters today and Thursday, although the rising water temperatures
could limit the development. Sea of 3 to 5 feet can be expected
through this weekend.

Chance for showers and storms will return late Thursday or Friday
morning and are expected to continue through the end of the
weekend as a cold front moves across Southeast Texas as possibly
stalls inland. This will result in winds becoming more easterly
late Friday into Saturday. At this time, the higher chances for
storms will occur on Sunday as the front begins to push into the
coastal waters. Once the front pushes further into the Gulf,
winds will become northeasterly and strengthen late Sunday into
Monday. Seas will build to 5 to 7 feet. Advisories may be
required.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  85  69  79 /  10  30  30  80
Houston (IAH)  70  85  71  83 /  10  10  20  60
Galveston (GLS)  68  77  67  76 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...24


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