Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 120447
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1147 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

No major issues with the short-term forecast for SE TX as mild/dry
quiet weather persists.

Skies have finally cleared across much of the region this afternoon.
With very weak ridging aloft in place tonight, look for mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies tonight as low temperatures range from the up-
per 40s across the Piney Woods into the lower and mid 50s elsewhere.
(Lows should be in the lower 60s at the beaches.)

As surface high pressure (to the east) continues to move further out
to the east, and the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly tomorrow,
we`ll likely see the return of mid/high clouds as low-level moisture
begins to slowly increase. This could lead to some patchy fog by to-
morrow night. Otherwise, a gradual warming trend will prevail. Highs
tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 70s and low temperatures in the
lower to mid 60s Tuesday night. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

The long term period brings a pattern change with periods of showers
and thunderstorms. A deepening upper level trough will dig over the
central Rockies/southwest CONUS by midweek. Ahead of this trough, a
sfc low develops over the central Plains, moving northeastward
towards the Mid MS Valley. This pattern will enhance southerly flow
in our region, along with increasing instability and a gradual
uptick in moisture into the end of the week. Wednesday looks warm
and relatively dry. Patchy fog/sea fog cannot be ruled out in the
evening into the morning, with the best potential Wednesday into
Thursday.

A slow-moving/weak cold front will move southeastward across the
region as the aforementioned sfc low moves across the central CONUS.
Will continue to monitor Thursday afternoon into Friday for
increasing rain/storm chances, as forcing and instability increase
with different vort maxes/shortwaves developing along the front just
north/northwest of SE TX. The ingredients for strong to severe
thunderstorms are there for Thursday, particularly for our northern
counties. However, and based on latest guidance and forecast
soundings, any storms developing on Thursday will need to overcome
the strong capping inversion. Will continue to monitor trends. It
will also be breezy in response to tighten pressure gradient.

PWAT values will range into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range by Friday as
the slow-moving front finally enters our region. This will suggest
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms continuing into
Saturday. The front should finally move over the coastal waters by
Saturday. However, deterministic models and most ensemble means keep
precipitation chances continuing along and behind the front through
late Sunday. Given the differences in models, especially after
Friday, kept rain/storm chances near NBM guidance, with higher
chances for our northern counties.

Surface high pressure will finally build over the central/high
Plains late Sunday into early next week, pushing drier air into the
region. Breezy to windy conditions along with near average
temperatures can be expected behind in the wake of the front.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

VFR CIGs southwest of most terminals has been slow to expand this
evening, but has now finally gone BKN060 at HOU. Maintain thinking
that cloud bases will fall to around MVFR/IFR threshold while
expanding some, but no longer go explicitly to MVFR CIGs north of
IAH with deck still not north of I-10. S/SE winds pick up later in
the morning, still to around 10 kts with widespread VFR conditions
emerging.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Surface high over the southeastern CONUS will continue to bring
south to southeasterly flow through most of the week. There is a
potential for patchy dense sea fog each night through at least,
early Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. The tightening
pressure gradient will also produce moderate onshore winds. Building
seas are also anticipated thanks to the increase of the
southeasterly fetch. This next cold front should slowly move over
the coastal waters by Friday, potentially stalling over the Upper TX
coast into the weekend, and serve as a focus for rain and storm
chances through Sunday. This front will finally move well offshore
Sunday into next Monday, resulting in elevated seas and seas in its
wake.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  52  77  62  82 /   0   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  54  77  63  83 /   0   0  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  61  71  65  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...JM


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