Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
000
FXUS66 KHNX 272026
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
126 PM PDT Wed Mar 27 2024


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. There is a 65% chance of at least 10 inches of snow for
elevations above 7,000 feet in Yosemite National Park through 5
PM Thursday.

2. A Wind Advisory will be in effect from 11 AM Thursday through
1 AM Friday for the Kern County Deserts and Mountain Slopes.

3. There is around generally a 55 to 65 percent chance of one
foot of snow or more in the Sierra Nevada above 5,500 feet
Friday afternoon through Sunday.

4. There is around 55 to 65 percent chance of one inch of rain
or more in the Sierra Nevada foothills and about 25 to 50
percent for the Kern County mountains Friday afternoon through
Sunday.

5. Dry and warming trend is forecast to occur early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon highs continue to trend upwards today as a shortwave
ridge of high pressure exits the area. The ridge is being forced
out by an shortwave disturbance that is forecast to bring light
precipitation to the valley, with moderate snowfall in the
Sierra Nevada. Snowfall in particular is forecast to impact
Yosemite National Park at elevations above 7,000 feet.
Currently, there is about an 85% chance of at least 8 inches of
snow and a 65% chance of at least 10 inches of snow for the high
Sierra at YNP through 5 PM Thursday. As the shortwave passes
through the region Thursday, gradients are forecast to tighten
across the Kern County Mountains and desert areas. Wind gusts
up to 50 mph are conceivable on Thursday afternoon and Thursday
evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 11 AM Thursday
through 1 AM Friday.

The parent upper low associated with the initial shortwave is
then forecast to dip southward from the Pacific Northwest
towards Central California by Friday afternoon. Blended model
guidance has been consistent on this part of the storm being
more significant than the initial Wed/Thu wave. Snow levels are
also forecast to be lower, with snow levels roughly at
5,000 - 5,500 feet Friday afternoon. As this low pressure
system pushes south to southeast, precipitation will fall and
spread over the Sierra Nevada, foothills, and San Joaquin
Valley. The heaviest rainfall is forecast to occur in southwest
Kern County, where our CWA is currently highlighted by a
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall by the WPC, with a Slight
Risk very close to the CWA border. Overnight Friday and Saturday
morning, potential flooding in portions of Kern County below
the snowline cannot be ruled out.

The heaviest rainfall below the snowline and snow above the
snowline is forecast to end by mid to late Saturday morning.
Currently, NBM is showing up to a 60-70% chance of at least 1
foot of snow at the high elevations the the Sierra Nevada in
Fresno County from 5 PM Friday through 5 PM Saturday. Snow
showers are forecast to linger Saturday afternoon through
Sunday, with snow levels dropping down to about 4,500 feet by
Sunday morning. Rain and snow is forecast to exit the area by
late Sunday. Ensemble guidance is indicating a much warmer and
drier trend next week as high pressure builds.


&&


.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR with local IFR for areas mainly Fresno County
northward due to incoming precipitation beginning 00Z Thu and
spreading south to Tulare and Kings Counties by 06Z Thu. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail across Central California for at least
the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  03/26/2024 14:18
EXPIRES: 03/27/2024 23:59
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 1 AM PDT Friday for
CAZ337>339.
Winter Weather Advisory above 7000 feet from 8 PM this evening
to 5 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ323-326.
&&

$$

ab

weather.gov/hanford


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.