Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
000
FXUS64 KHUN 160550
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
Weak shortwave impulse was moving through the upper ridge position
across the MS valley early this morning. This along with elevated
theta-E advection was producing bands of mid clouds and even some
virga or light sprinkles over western TN into northeast MS and
northwest AL. These will continue to push east through the next
few hours. At this point, only sprinkles are expected, but will
keep an eye out as lapse rates above 700 mb are fairly steep.
Today should be another warm day with highs in the lower to middle
80s. The mid clouds this morning are forecast to shift east later
today. Southwest winds will increase as the pressure gradient
tightens in response to the large cyclone across the central
states. Gusts of 15-20kt will develop through the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
The cyclone will continue to pivot northeast into the western
Great Lakes region tonight into Wednesday. It is becoming more and
more apparent that the cold front will not reach the local area.
Instead, showers and thunderstorms will align itself with the
weakening low level jet axis late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Bulk shear values of 40-50kt will still be present, so won`t rule
out a few stronger storms. But QG forcing will be rather
unsubstantial, so not looking for a very organized event.
Thursday should be mainly dry and very warm again in advance of
the cold front that will pass through the region Thursday night
into early Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will occur
along the front as a shortwave jets east across the Ozarks into
KY/TN. This may also pose a low end threat of strong to severe
storms, mainly just to our north where stronger wind profiles will
exist.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
The forecast over the weekend is a bit messy with the frontal
boundary shifting into the deep South. Shortwaves within the
basically zonal flow across the southern U.S. will produce
multiple areas of rain and thunderstorms, particularly just to our
south. For our area, rain chances will be "medium" or in the
30-50% range. A stronger shortwave will eventually drop southeast
through the main upper trough position across the north central
and northeast U.S. Sunday into early Monday, sweeping the rain
chances away to the east. This will bring a somewhat dramatic cool
down (at least comparably to the 80s we are seeing now). Highs
Sunday will only be in the lower to middle 60s, then recover to
the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday after morning lows in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the period
as mid/high cloud cover continues to increase across the region
both overnight and into the day on Tuesday. Winds will also become
gusty at times from the late morning hours through the afternoon.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...AMP