866
FXUS64 KHUN 291931
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
231 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Cloud cover continues to overspread the Tennessee Valley region
this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front from the west.
Several days of southerly flow has helped to advect moisture into
the Tennessee Valley, with guidance indicating PWATs in the 1.4"
to 1.6" range overnight. This will create an environment favorable
for efficient rain-producing convection that will be widespread
(100%) and develop along and ahead of the front. For this reason,
WPC has placed most of our area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4)
for excessive rainfall. One important note, the latest guidance
hints that the heaviest axis of rainfall may set up to our west
and subsequently our storm total rainfall amounts have come down
a bit -- generally in the 0.75" to 1.5" range -- with some
locally higher amounts up to 2" near the AL/MS border. Still,
convective trends will need to be monitored overnight due to the
moist environment in place. Modest instability will allow for a
few storms overnight and into the early morning hours on Tuesday,
but very poor lapse rates and weak shear will prohibit any
strong/severe storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Convection will gradually wane during the 12-18z window Tuesday
morning from west to east as the front shifts eastward through the
region. Cloud cover will dissipate by the afternoon as high
pressure builds into the area -- resulting in a sunny end to the
day Tuesday and a mostly clear night (some patchy fog may develop
early Wednesday morning). High pressure will continue to promote
tranquil conditions both Wednesday and Thursday -- with sunny/dry
weather forecast. A pronounced warming trend will again occur as
highs will reach the low to mid 80s on Wednesday and the mid to
upper 80s on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

An upper ridge pattern will continue to translate eastward into the
mid/southern Atlantic states heading into the end of the work week.
High pressure at the sfc will also remain layered from the NE states
into the Carolinas, resulting in afternoon highs climbing predom into
the mid 80s/near 80F both Thu/Fri. An upper trough axis will also be
rotating eastward thru the mid/northern Plains, with an attendant sfc
low lifting NE into the Great Lakes area. This sfc wave will help
drag a cold front eastward thru the Midwest/Mid South regions well
into the day Fri. Low-medium chances for showers/tstms (20-50%) will
develop along/ahead of the oncoming cold front late Thu into Fri. Sct
showers/tstms will then continue into the first half of the weekend,
as the frontal boundary moves SE thru the central TN Valley. Low
chances for showers/tstms (20-30%) will also linger thru the second
half of the weekend period, as the broad upper trough pattern moves
eastward across the region. Minimal low-level convergence/instability
coupled with better dynamic forcing displayed N/W of the area should
offset the prob for more organized/stronger tstms, with QPF totals
around 0.25-0.50 inches thru the upcoming weekend. Seasonably warm
temps will continue Sat/Sun, with highs mainly in the lower 80s/near
80F, while overnight trends predom in the upper 50s/mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Cloud cover continues to overspread the region this afternoon.
Showers and storms also are on the way for later this afternoon
through the overnight hours. This will bring a slight reduction
and VIS and also MVFR to IFR CIGs later this evening and tonight.
No severe weather is expected, but lightning as well as some gusty
winds and heavy downpours are all possible. Chances for showers
will then gradually decrease from west to east through Tuesday
morning. Outside of thunderstorms through tonight, expect
sustained southerly winds between 10-15 knots with gusts up to
around 20 knots. Winds will then shift by Tuesday afternoon to be
west/northwesterly and range between 5-10 knots.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...26