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000
FXUS63 KICT 131744
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1244 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Unseasonably warm through about Wednesday. Near record high
  temperatures possible Sunday. Below average temperatures possible
  late week through next weekend.

* Strong winds fueling very high to extreme grassfire danger across
  mainly central and south-central Kansas today, then again Monday
  and Tuesday. Red Flag Warning today portions of central and north-
  central Kansas.

* Thunderstorm chances and associated severe thunderstorm potential
  Monday evening-night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

TEMPERATURES...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports high
chances for above average temperatures today through Wednesday. The
warmest days look to be this weekend through Monday, when forecast
high temperatures well into the 80s to near 90 degrees are probable.
Russell may flirt with a record high today (92 in 2006), with
additional record highs being threatened Sunday (Wichita 93 in 1936,
Salina 93 in 2002, Russell 91 in 2002). By Thursday of next week,
model consensus is in fairly good agreement supporting a significant
cool down through next weekend, with some solutions supporting
daytime highs in the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s. Stay tuned
for later forecasts, as details are refined the next several days.

WIND...A fleet-footed shortwave will induce deepening low pressure
and associates stout/gusty south to southwest winds today, with
gusts likely approaching 35 mph from mid-late morning into the early
evening. Even stronger south-southwest-west winds will continue
Monday and Tuesday, as unseasonably strong/deep low pressure moves
through the Central Plains, as progged by ensemble climatologies.
Wind gusts exceeding 40-50 mph both days appears likely. Wind
advisories will likely eventually be needed.

PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...Lift and mid-level
moistening associated with a fast-moving shortwave may support a
few isolated high-based showers/thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening across central Kansas. Coverage should be
fairly sparse, rain amounts very light, and severe weather is
not expected.

As has been advertised the past several days, there remains
potential for increasing thunderstorm chances Monday evening-night
across the region, as a deep/strong western CONUS upper trough and
associated upper speed max approaches from the west, overspreading a
moist/unstable airmass in place across the Central and Southern
Plains. The overall synoptic setup in conjunction with an
anomalously high CAPE/shear combination supports a threat for severe
thunderstorms across the region, some of which could produce higher-
end severe weather. However, latest model trends have continued a
somewhat slower and deeper solution, which is increasing confidence
that storm initiation and associated higher-end severe weather
potential (i.e. better chances for discrete supercells) could be
further west over the High Plains. If this scenario does indeed
verify, by the time strong large-scale forcing and associated
thunderstorms reach central and eastern Kansas sometime Monday
night, storm mode could be rather messy, which would tend to reduce
the higher-end severe threat over central and eastern Kansas. All-in-
all, uncertainty remains with the evolution of late Monday`s
severe potential. Stay tuned, as forecast details continue to be
refined through the weekend.

Additional rain chances are possible Wednesday night through
Thursday, within a west-northwest flow aloft regime, but strong or
severe storms are not expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Southerly winds
at 20-25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt will continue through sunset.
As wind speeds decrease to 10-20 kt by 02Z, LLWS concerns will
increase as well with a 45-50 kt LLJ overspreading the region.
LLWS conditions will subside from west to east beginning at 07Z
across central KS and near 13Z across eastern KS. Winds then
begin to shift to the west and northwest as a weak frontal zone
slides into the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Increasing south-southwest winds in conjunction with very warm
temperatures and humidity in the teens percent prompted a Red Flag
Warning this afternoon into early evening for Barton, Rice,
Ellsworth, Russell, and Lincoln counties. For Monday and Tuesday,
very high to extreme grassland fire danger is once again probable
across central and south-central Kansas, due to continued well above
average temperatures, strong/gusty south to southwest winds, and low
humidity. Stay tuned, as forecast details are refined this
weekend.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047-048-050.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...BMB
FIRE WEATHER...ADK