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000
FXUS63 KICT 190809
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
309 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stepping back a month with a March-like feel thru the weekend
  with only spotty light rain chances.

- Warming trend closer to late April climo early next week.

- Better Spring-like convective chances by Day 7/Thursday and
  beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Water vapor satellite and upper air analysis this morning
reveal a trough over the northern plains and a ridge over the
Gulf of Mexico. This is resulting in primarily zonal flow across
the central plains that will likely remain persistent over the
next day or so. A mid-level baroclinic zone across Nebraska
will sag southward during the day today and will likely reside
across the western half of Kansas by tonight. Weak perturbations
in the mid/upper level flow along with a subtle mid-level
frontogenesis tonight into Saturday morning should be enough to
trigger some isolated to widely scattered light rain showers
primarily for area along I-70 and west of I-135. Rainfall totals
will likely remain well below a tenth of an inch.

Rain chances quickly come to an end Saturday morning, and a
cool day is expected on Saturday with many locations struggling
to get above 55 degrees by the afternoon hours. Cloudy skies
will limit radiational cooling Saturday night/Sunday morning,
but a surface ridge across the area should allow most places to
dip into the 30s. Areas of frost are possible along the I-70
corridor Sunday morning. A warming trend will commence on
Sunday, and the return of southerly flow should allow for better
moisture to begin streaming northward to start off the work week.

There are some indications from both deterministic and ensemble
global models that the region may see a couple rounds of storms next
week. However, there are still numerous questions around quality of
moisture along with temporal and spatial differences in the arrival
of the next upper wave. So while severe weather isn`t a guarantee,
there is a signal that the pattern next week will be active, and
there may be more than one opportunity at rain/storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through
the next 24 hours.

Surface high pressure is expected to remain situated across the
Plains with the cold front now pushed down into South TX. Band
of mid level clouds is in place across NW KS into central parts
of the state with some of these affecting KRSL-KGBD and
eventually KSLN. Confidence is high that they will remain at VFR
levels. Light northeast winds will come around to the south and
east across the region but will remain on the light side.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Warm, dry, and windy conditions will support very high grassland
fire danger Monday afternoon for locations along and west of the I-
135/US-81 corridor.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...JC