847
FXUS62 KILM 300005
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
805 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will lead to shower and thunderstorm
chances from late Tuesday through Wednesday. Dry and sunny
weather returns for Thursday and Friday. Thereafter, a cold
front approaches the area, bringing chances for showers and
storms over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure off the coast to keep the weather quiet but
also mild through the period. Guidance is also in good agreement in
no areas of fog developing like seen this morning. Towards the
end of the period an upper level disturbance will be approaching
from the west. An isolated storm cannot be ruled out over far
western zones just prior to sunset, though forecast soundings
are showing waning instability.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A sharpening shortwave trough will be on our doorstep at the
start of the period. With good forcing for ascent and
sufficient (but not impressive) moisture in place, expect
scattered showers and isolated thunder to affect the area as
the shortwave gradually shifts eastward over Tuesday night. The
shortwave is expected to slow down and close off just offshore
on Wednesday, which will allow for cool mid-level temps and
steeper lapse rates to coincide with daytime heating on
Wednesday. This should lead to weak surface-based instability
in the 500-1000 J/kg range by Wednesday afternoon with rather
modest effective shear magnitudes in the 15-25 kt range.
Nevertheless, weak upper-level divergence in tandem with low-
level convergence provided by a weak inland surface trough
shifting southeastward along with the sea breeze should provide
sufficient lift to get at least isolated to perhaps scattered
convection going, with attendant threats for gusty winds and
possibly small hail, if greater instability is realized. The
weak shear will most likely limit storm organization and
longevity, but it may be sufficient to help organize a short
line of storms along an outflow boundary, which would increase
the gusty wind threat. The thunderstorm threat should wane after
sunset on Wednesday as nocturnal cooling reduces instability.

Morning lows on Wednesday will be driven by overcast skies
and shower activity with low-mid 60s forecast. On Wednesday
morning, mid- level subsidence on the backside of the shortwave
should produce breaks in the clouds which will permit warming
back into the low- to perhaps mid-80s before convection
develops.

Over Wednesday night, the shortwave will continue to drift away
while the surface trough shifts offshore. Low pressure off the
coast should eventually turn the flow to N-NE by the end of the
night, with weak cool advection helping to bring lows into the
low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid-level ridging and weak surface high pressure look to take
control for Thursday and Friday with more summerlike conditions
in place. Highs in the low-mid 80s amidst plentiful afternoon
cumulus is expected and there may be an isolated pop-up shower
or two along the sea breeze or inland near a weak Piedmont
trough. Over the weekend, a cold front associated with low
pressure occluding over the western Great Lakes into south-
central Canada will bring our next chance for isolated to
perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, with mid-
level ridging firmly in place just offshore and the parent low
so far away, expect this cold front to stall near or west of
the area. Depending on where this front stalls, enhanced shower
and thunderstorm activity could affect the inland zones on a
daily basis from Saturday through Monday. High temperatures will
be modulated by the outcome of the stalling cold front, but
near-normal highs in the low 80s are presently expected over the
weekend while lows fall into the low to perhaps mid-60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through the period as high pressure continues to dominate.
Low levels remain mixed enough overnight, ie. weak SSW-SW low
level jet 15 to 20 kt, to preclude fog. Some thin cirrus to work
it`s way in from the west tonight, becoming more opaque
daylight Tue. Will see diurnally driven cu develop late Tue
morning, becoming more organized Tue aftn, especially inland
terminals. Isolated shower or tstorm not out of the question
toward the end of this 24 hr period, mainly FLO and possibly LBT
terminals, but too low of a percentage to include at this time.
This a result of a 5H trof approaching from the west. Winds
become SW-WSW 5 to 10 kt at all terminals Tue daylight morning.
The sea breeze will back the coastal terminals to the south
with gusts near 20 kt during Tue aftn/evening.

Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate. MVFR/IFR visibility
possible each morning around daybreak. Brief flight restrictions
from shower/thunderstorm possible at all terminals Tue
night thru Wed evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday... Pretty steady state conditions offshore as high
pressure east of the area remains in place. Wind speeds will be in
the 10-15kt range with a few mainly diurnal gusts to 20 mph. There
will be a 2-3ft wind chop along with the easterly swell of 9-10
seconds.

Tuesday night through Saturday...
Modest southerly flow ahead of a surface trough will persist
through Wednesday before swinging around to easterly on Thursday
as the trough washes out and weak low pressure to our northeast
briefly influences the flow. Behind the low, surface high will
pressure will take control through the remainder of the period,
with a generally easterly flow at around 10 kts dominating from
Thursday afternoon through Saturday. Southerly wind waves in
the 2-4 ft range on Tuesday night will gradually relax to around
2 ft on Thursday and remain around 2 ft through Saturday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...MBB/ABW