502
FXUS61 KILN 060231
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1031 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and moist airmass will remain in place across the region
through at least midweek, leading to occasional periods of
showers and thunderstorms into Thursday. Drier air will return
by the end of the week, although rain chances may persist at
times into next weekend as below normal temperatures settle in
for next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Arching band of showers and embedded thunderstorms lifting up
the Ohio Valley in advance of a well developed short wave will
push into northern Kentucky, southeast Indiana, and the
Cincinnati metro before daybreak Monday. Otherwise, there will
be thickening cloud cover through the overnight. Forecast lows
look reasonable ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A pivoting axis of SHRA/TSRA will overspread the srn 2/3 of the
ILN FA during the daytime Monday, with the greatest coverage
focusing S of I-70 during the heart of the daytime. The
aforementioned front will also pivot back N, allowing for
richer LL moisture to expand back N through the daytime, with
PWATs once again exceeding 1.5 inches (175% of seasonal norms).
This, combined with slowing/erratic cell motions (owing to a
developing W-E oriented LL convergence zone (with stretching
along it)), may once again create isolated heavy rain/flooding
concerns, especially in a tier or two of counties either side of
the OH Rvr. This setup, on top of already-saturated ground for
many spots, lends itself to at least some concern for more than
a spotty/ISO hydro concern during the afternoon/early evening.
So have added mention in the HWO for the areas of greatest
potential for high water/flooding concerns Monday
afternoon/evening, even recognizing the threat should still be
fairly isolated.

With quite a bit of cloud cover and SHRA/TSRA activity about the
region during the day, forecast highs were trimmed several
degrees, with highs generally in the lower/mid 70s and sfc DPs
nudging back into the mid 60s for most spots. SHRA/TSRA activity
should become more ISO in coverage toward the evening/beyond,
but may not shut off completely through Monday night as the
weakly-convergent axis continues to crawl to the N. An
unseasonably warm night is on tap for Monday as lows only dip
into the lower/mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A persistent southwest flow aloft will allow deep moisture advection
through much of the period. Coupled with a parade of disturbances,
the moisture advection will lead to several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms, producing the chance for hazardous weather during
parts of the long term.

For Tuesday, thunderstorms will be triggered by a couple of
disturbances settling into the Ohio Valley. Ample instability will
allow the deep convection, which will be organized by a potent mid
level wind flow. Downbursts will be favored by dry air in the mid
levels, suggesting a threat for severe thunderstorms. After a
relative lull Tuesday night to early Wednesday, more strong to
severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
night when a more potent disturbance triggers a surface low tracking
to the Great Lakes.

For Thursday through Sunday, while stronger disturbances may allow
the bulk of severe weather to shift south and east, mainly afternoon
and evening thunderstorms will be possible each day in persistent
moisture and instability.

Warm weather continues Tuesday through Thursday with highs ranging
from the mid 70s to low 80s. Cooler air working in on a
northwesterly breeze will result in highs mainly in the 60s for
Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR will prevail through the early part of the period. There is
some potential that low stratus could develop after 06Z, but it
seems more likely that patchy fog will cause some visibility
restrictions. Have continued to forecast MVFR visibilities at
KLUK and KILN.

Showers and possibly some embedded thunderstorms will spread
northwards across the region after 10Z. Convective allowing near
term guidance suggests that this may push further north and
quicker than previously forecast. There will be a band of MVFR
ceilings in association with this precipitation. Once the
initial showers move through, it becomes highly uncertain what
will occur with ceilings. While there will still be lingering
low level moisture, which could cause low clouds to persist, it
appears that conditions could pop back up to VFR for several
hours during the day. Then as showers and storms redevelop,
ceilings will drop back down to MVFR, with IFR likely in the
Cincinnati area. But forecast confidence beyond about 15Z is
fairly low.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are likely
Monday night into Tuesday. Thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday afternoon and evening and then again late Wednesday
into Wednesday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...