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000
FXUS63 KIWX 120554
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
154 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers (and the chance for an isolated thunderstorm
  or two (mainly southeast of Fort Wayne)) will continue
  through Friday morning.

- Winds increase overnight and into the day on Friday. Wind
  gusts 40 to 45 mph will be possible Friday afternoon and
  evening, with a few isolated gusts up to 50 mph. A Wind
  Advisory will go into effect from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT on Friday.

- A warm, active pattern will ensue, with multiple chances for
  scattered showers and storms from Sunday through Wednesday.
  Cannot rule out the chance for severe weather, especially on
  Tuesday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s each day

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

A large area of low pressure is lifting north-northeast through the
Great Lakes region today, currently centered northeast of
Indianapolis. Latest local radar shows areas of showers
progressing northward through the CWA this afternoon. As this
area of low pressure continues to move northeast, scattered
showers (and the chance for an isolated thunderstorm primarily
southeast of Fort Wayne) will continue through overnight. There
will be a brief dry period south of US 30 as the dry slot of the
system swings through between 8 PM to 2 AM. Additional showers
will be possible Friday morning/early afternoon as the backside
of the low wraps around on Friday. As the low pressure system
becomes centered over Ontario on Friday, northwesterly wind
gusts will increase along a tightening pressure gradient. A Wind
Advisory will go into effect from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT on Friday.
Winds will be sustained out of the northwest at 20 to 25 mph
with gusts 40 to 45 mph will be possible Friday afternoon and
evening. A few isolated gusts up to 50 mph will be possible.
Winds diminish after sunset on Friday evening.

After a few gloomy, dreary days, the weekend will be much quieter
and warmer thanks to high pressure! Saturday will be dry, sunny, and
mild April day. An approaching warm front and southwesterly
winds will result in high temperatures in the low to mid 60s on
Saturday. Sunday will be even warmer with highs in the 70s and
just a slight chance (25% or less) for a shower or storm.

With the start of the new work week, the wet, active pattern we`ve
experienced for much of April so far will resume. WAA will promote
highs into the mid to upper 70s each day from Monday to Wednesday. A
ridge builds over the Central Plains on Monday. As a result, highs
could reach the low 80s on Monday, which will be within 5 degrees of
record highs! With this unseasonable warmth for mid April comes
several chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms each day.
Specifically, the Storm Prediction Center highlights the far
southwest portion of our CWA in the Day 6 Outlook in a 15% Slight
Risk. A strong low pressure system will eject out of the Rockies and
into the Central Plains on Tuesday. As the system`s warm front lifts
through the area on Tuesday morning, severe thunderstorms will be
possible Tuesday afternoon and evening in the warm sector ahead of
the attendant cold front. As this is still 6 days away, there could
be adjustments in timing and track of this system, so check back for
updates. Additional chances for scattered showers and storms will be
possible on Wednesday and Thursday as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 154 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Gradual phasing of two upper level lows will allow for
cyclogenesis to continue through this morning as the low
pressure area slows its progress across southeast Ontario. This
will aid in strengthening low level cold advection today via a
strengthening low level height gradient. Along with the cold
advection and broad cyclonic flow will come gusty northwest
winds via good low level mixing, continuation of times of MVFR
cigs of 1-2k feet, along with periods of light rain showers as
deformation forcing persists. Strongest wind gusts to around 35
knots are expected this afternoon into early this evening. A
transition back to VFR conditions is expected today as drier low
level air advects in from the northwest downstream of the
incoming low level anticyclone.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for INZ005>009-014-017-018-104-116-204-216.
     Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for
     INZ006>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-116-216.
OH...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
     Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.
MI...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043-
     046.
     Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Marsili