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000
FXUS62 KKEY 250802
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
402 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Currently - An Atlantic ridge extends a modest ridge westward
across Florida. This is resulting in gentle to moderate easterly
breezes across the Keys this morning. Overall conditions remain
quite dry with surface dew points still in the mid 60s and
precipitable water of just under an inch. This along with a
subsidence inversion based just above 850 mb and a backing profile
has prevented any shower formation. For a long stretch this
evening the forecast area was largely cloud free. More recently,
fields of stratocumulus have been able to percolate, but still no
radar precipitation returns. Meanwhile, troughing does prevail
from just above the inversion to the tropopause. However, this has
had no impact on local weather

Forecast - The weak ridge across Florida will hold on for another
day, keeping winds generally gentle out of the east. The incoming
air will continue to originate from further north. This along with
being driven by the anticyclone will keep dew points down in the
mid 60s. Temperatures will range near to slightly below normal.
Stable conditions will continue with lower level inhibition just
managing to hold on and the mid and upper levels transitions to
sharp ridging.

Heading into the weekend, a sprawling continental high will spread
southeastwards off the Atlantic coast and stretch a beefy ridge
axis across the Gulf of Mexico. This will result in a stiff
freshening of northeast to easterly breezes. This will also give a
large dose of continental air and ensure dew points remain in the
lower to mid 60s. Expect temperatures to remain near to slightly
below normal. Deep layered ridging, lack of moisture, and a
persistent subsidence inversion will extend our lengthy stretch of
dry air.

The sprawling high will steadily weaken through the weekend as it
settles southwestward along the Atlantic Coast. Expect winds to
trend downwards from late in the weekend and through early next
week. As this transition takes place, boundary layer moisture will
trend upwards and local dew points will climb inexorably into the
upper 60s. In addition, the synoptic scale subsidence inversion
will elevate towards 800 mb. All this along with the flow aloft
becoming zonal and the lower to mid level high becoming displace
to our north will open the door for a slight chance for showers.
No distinct temperature trend is expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

An Atlantic ridge will maintain a modest ridge across Florida
today and keep gentle to moderate easterly breezes on Keys waters.
Winds will trend sharply upwards late this week and into the
weekend as a sprawling high drives southeastward off of the
Atlantic coast and reach across the Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft
Advisories are becoming increasingly likely for all Keys waters
beginning Friday Night and lasting through the weekend. Winds will
gradually taper back early next week as the high weakens and
settles southwestward along the Atlantic coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR and dry conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the
TAF period. Near surface winds will be easterly at 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Other than 0.02 inches measured at MTH 3 days ago, EYW and MTH have
remained dry for the last 20 days. The last measurable rainfall was
at EYW of 0.55 inches on April 4th.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP

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