Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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FXUS62 KKEY 211518
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1118 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1104 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024
Water vapor imagery highlights a broad trough complex lumbering
east into Texas and northern Mexico. Ahead of the trough,
there is an eruption of convection over the northwestern Gulf
where surface pressures are falling and the wind field is
becoming more cyclonic. The Florida Keys remain under control of
the low-level ridge although mid to upper heights are eroding. The
forecast calls for east to southeast winds to steadily increase
this afternoon. Rain chances are slim, and high temperatures
should reach the mid 80s. Any preparations for heavy rainfall and
damaging wind gusts from thundery squalls should be complete today
as potentially strong to severe storms may be nearing the Keys
around Friday at daybreak.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1104 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024
A Small Craft Advisory may be required as early as tonight for
east to southeast winds increasing to near 20 knots. From
synopsis, east to southeast breezes will freshen today and
tonight across the Keys waters, as low pressure develops in the
Gulf of Mexico. Strong southeasterly breezes on Friday will be
accompanied by strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. These
thundery squalls may come in multiple episodes Friday through
Saturday, and will be capable of damaging wind gusts, locally
heavy rainfall, and perhaps a violent waterspout or two. The heavy
weather will depart Saturday night as fresh to strong breezes
shift to the northwest. Breezes will shift quickly to the
northeast then east Monday and Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1104 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024
VFR conditions continue at EYW and MTH through sunset today.
Surfaces breezes out of the southeast increase, and gusts will
range from 20 to 25 knots. Periods of MVFR and IFR conditions are
likely as vicinity showers intermittently pass over both terminals
tonight through Friday with little likelihood of any significant
improvement in this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  82  75  82  75 /  10  30  60  90
Marathon  84  75  83  76 /  10  30  60  90

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....DP
Data Acquisition.....AP

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