Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
249
FNUS73 KLBF 300322
FWSLBF
Spot Forecast for Mahoney RX Burn...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1022 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CDT on April 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact the NWS North Platte office at 308-532-0921 (or
at 1-800-603-3562) if you have any questions or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
A Pacific cold front moving through Wyoming this evening will
arrive at the burn site Tuesday afternoon. A wind shift from the
west to the northwest will mark the frontal passage followed by a
marked increase in wind speed. Wind speeds will increase from 15
mph to 20 mph. Gusts to 30 mph or stronger with the frontal
passage are a definite possibility, especially given the
potential for a passing shower shown by our models. The best
guess on the timing of the front and the brief shower is between
1 and 3 pm CDT.
Winds will subside behind the cold front with speeds falling to 5
mph or less by 9 pm Tuesday evening.
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny then becoming sunny. Slight chance
of showers early in the morning, then chance of
showers in the morning. Slight chance of
showers early in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 14 mph shifting to the
northwest 16 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Eye level winds.....South winds around 8 mph shifting to the
northwest 10 to 12 mph in the afternoon.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......6100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 18 mph shifting to the
northwest 20 to 24 mph in the late morning and
afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........49 56 61 66 71 69 67 66 55 45 34 24
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
LAL.............2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Temp............47 49 50 53 58 60 62 62 64 64 64 65
RH..............89 83 83 77 67 60 56 56 50 46 43 40
20 FT wind dir..S S SW SW W W W NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..14 14 14 14 14 15 16 18 18 20 20 17
20 FT wind gust.20 20 18 18 20 21 23 25 26 26 26 25
Eye lvl wnd dir.S S SW SW W W W NW NW NW NW NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 10
Eye lvl wnd gst.12 12 11 11 12 13 14 15 16 16 16 15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.8 2.6 3.2 4.5 4.5 5.0 5.0 6.1
Transp wind dir.S SW SW W W NW NW NW NW NW NW W
Transp wind spd.18 16 14 15 21 22 20 23 23 24 23 21
Haines index....6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers
overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 16 mph shifting to the
south 7 to 9 mph overnight.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds around 10 mph decreasing to up
to 8 mph in the evening, then shifting to the
south up to 5 mph overnight.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 18 mph shifting to the
northeast around 9 mph late in the evening,
then shifting to the east around 8 mph
overnight shifting to the southeast around 10
mph early in the morning.
Haines Index........5 moderate.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........13 3 5 7 9 10 12 14 20 26 32 43
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
LAL.............2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............63 61 59 52 50 47 45 43 42 41 41 39
RH..............41 42 45 56 61 65 68 73 73 76 73 79
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW W S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..16 14 12 9 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9
20 FT wind gust.22 20 16 13 10 9 9 9 10 10 12 13
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW NW NW NW NW W S S S S S S
Eye lvl wnd spd.10 8 7 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5
Eye lvl wnd gst.13 12 10 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 8
Mix hgt (kft)...4.5 4.0 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
Transp wind dir.NW NW N N N NE NE E E E SE SE
Transp wind spd.18 16 14 12 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 10
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of showers through the
day. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 13 mph shifting to the
southeast 14 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
late in the afternoon.
Eye level winds.....South winds around 5 mph shifting to the
southeast 8 to 9 mph in the afternoon.
LAL.................1 increasing to 3 late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 18 mph shifting to the southeast 22
to 23 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........53 64 69 74 79 77 75 73 74 74 74 78
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3
Temp............38 39 42 47 51 54 58 60 62 63 63 62
RH..............82 79 76 68 61 54 47 44 41 41 41 44
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..9 10 10 12 12 13 13 14 15 15 15 14
20 FT wind gust.14 15 16 16 17 18 18 20 21 22 23 22
Eye lvl wnd dir.S S S S S S SE SE SE SE SE SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8
Eye lvl wnd gst.8 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.6 3.6 4.7 3.8
Transp wind dir.S S S S SW S S SE SE SE SE SE
Transp wind spd.14 16 15 13 12 13 14 16 18 22 23 23
Haines index....5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
$$
Forecaster...Cole
Requested by...Elliot Nauert
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412749.0/LBF
.DELDT 04/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL elliot.nauert@gmail.com