Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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454 FXUS64 KLCH 010904 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 404 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 404 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Main talking point in the short term period is the hoisting of a new Flood Watch due to anticipated heavy rain threat late tonight into Thursday. Newly developing shortwave over Deep Central Texas will spurn the development of convection this afternoon. As the shortwave moves northeast towards the DFW metro, southwest flow over this convection will result in an upscale growth of these storms that will then move eastward. The line is expected to develop into a defined MCS of sorts as it enters Deep Southeast Texas after midnight tonight. Dewpoints have already rebounded after the last boundary passage and further southeast flow and moisture flux will place a rich airmass back into our CWA ahead of this new boundary. Forecast PWATs from 1.60 to 1.75 inches indicate storms will be very efficient rain-makers and latest probs from the NBM and HREF point to ~20 percent probability that the Lakes area will receive another 3+ inches with these storms. Guidance is indicating this round of storms will be more progressive than the last two events, but with very weak low level flow and south-southwest flow at 700 mb, I`m hesitant to believe this system will move through in a short period. Due to this concern, the anticipated rainfall and antecedent conditions, a Flood Watch has been issued for much of our inland area from 1 AM Tonight to 7 PM Thursday. Southerly flow will prevail even after the line of storms passes, working to rebound the moist airmass once again. This will aid in the development of more showers and thunderstorms into Friday. For now the Flood Watch ends Thursday evening, but if later guidance shows another round of appreciable rainfall Friday, further extensions or a new Watch may become necessary. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 404 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 A mainly zonal flow aloft expected this weekend, with weak upper level disturbances keeping at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms north of I-10 for Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Overnight lows expected in the mid to upper 60s, and afternoon highs in the mid 80s. By Monday, a large mid to upper level trough over the Western U.S. expected to lift rapidly northeast, with most of the moisture and lift well north of the region. By Tuesday and Wednesday, The mid to upper level pattern will be generally dominated by a large low over the upper Midwest, a building ridge over the Southern Gulf/NW Caribbean, with the Southern U.S. remaining predominately in a zonal flow aloft. Available moisture remains limited at this point, as well as blended guidance showing little if any precipitation. Temperatures daybreak Monday expected in the upper 60s to near 70 with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. By Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures are expected to gradually rise into the lower 70s for overnight lows, and upper 80s to lower 90s for afternoon highs. 08/DML && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 GOES IR and nighttime microphysics imagery show cirrus streaming into the area from storms that formed over W TX earlier today. With this occurring, confidence has decreased since the 00Z TAFs regarding any fog-related vsby reductions less than MVFR. Clouds are expected to remain thin enough to allow some radiational fog, but expect it to be mostly patchy in nature. The main exception will be at the Acadiana terminals where there continues to be a slightly better signal for more persistent MVFR vsbys with occasional dips to IFR levels toward daybreak. Otherwise, VFR should prevail with winds becoming southeasterly 5-10 KT during the day, with a few gusts to near 20 KT at BPT/LCH. Winds will likely remain elevated into the evening with MVFR cigs forming at BPT/LCH. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 404 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 A brief period of increasing rain chances, winds and seas will take place on Thursday ahead of an approaching shortwave trof. No severe or Small Craft Advisory criteria is anticipated with this disturbance. Otherwise, onshore flow and mild conditions are anticipated through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 88 68 81 67 / 0 10 60 40 LCH 86 72 82 71 / 20 20 30 30 LFT 89 72 84 72 / 10 10 20 20 BPT 85 72 83 71 / 30 20 30 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Flood Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for LAZ027>032-141. TX...Flood Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...24