499
FXUS64 KLIX 291736
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Severe TS watch for the NW valid now until 14z(9am).

Winds will begin to weaken today dropping below advisory thresholds.
But there will still be gusts to 25mph at times and even higher
winds up to 40mph associated with the line of storms moving into the
area from the west with a few areas along this line possibly severe.
All severe wx modes will be possible and heavy rainfall will
accompany as well. The line will begin to speed up as it moves
toward the area this morning. Rain rates along the whole line
will be 2 to 4 inches per hour. Even though progressive for most
areas, there could still be a quick 1 to 2 inches that could
overwhelm low lying and poor drainage areas. Totals of 1 to 3
inches with locally higher amounts will be possible with this
system. It will likely be a rainy day for most of the day for most
of the area as a shield of light to moderate rain develops in the
wake of this system and lingers into the early evening hours. As
the gradient winds back off, it will cause the coastal flood
advisory footprint to become smaller and wind relative headlines
will begin to fall over the next 24 hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The scenario of fronts moving as far east as Dallas and stalling
only to retrograde will continue. This doesn`t change a lot locally
for much of the upcoming week, but there is a possibility that this
front gets oriented east/west and stalls near our area by the end of
the week. We will need to see how this plays out through the week
but it could bring another good chance of rain to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

MVFR conditions prevail at all area airports. A line of storms is
moving through the area, approaching the LA/MS state line. These
storms will continue to progress eastward through the afternoon
hours. Temporary periods of IFR conditions are possible, during
the afternoon as showers move through the area. Conditions at all
area airports will improve to VFR conditions tomorrow late morning
through the afternoon hours and persist through the end of the
forecast period. MSW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Strong SE winds(20-25kt) will begin to weaken today over all marine
areas. Small craft advisories will be lowered by mid morning and
caution statements will take their place. Winds should continue to
ease tonight into Tuesday falling to around the 5-10kt range. Winds
will remain out of the SE through this fcast but should remain
around 10kt for the most part.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  84  64  86 /  50  30  10  20
BTR  67  88  69  89 /  40  40  10  30
ASD  64  85  67  86 /  50  40  10  10
MSY  68  84  71  85 /  50  40  10  20
GPT  66  83  67  84 /  60  40  10  10
PQL  65  84  65  88 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ070-
     076-078.

GM...None.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086-
     087.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...TE