000
FXUS63 KLMK 261435
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1035 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   A few rain showers are possible today, with light precipitation
    totals (less than 0.10") generally expected. A stray
    thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this afternoon.

*   Warm and breezy this weekend, with gusts exceeding 30 mph out of
    the southwest at times.

*   Rain chances return early next week, but above normal
    temperatures persist.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Surface dew points have become more saturated over southern
Kentucky, and now a line of showers is producing measurable rain at
the surface. Have extended PoPs in the vicinity of the line of
showers a few hours as this line will slowly dissipate as it moves
northeast into drier air. Temperatures are expected to warm a few
degrees more than yesterday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Rain chances return to the region today as a warm front eventually
lifts through the Ohio Valley. However, some early morning radar
echoes across our south-central Kentucky counties are not resulting
in much at the sfc due to a stout low-level dry layer. Even at the
sfc, dewpoint depressions are greater than 10 degrees. Virga will
continue for the pre-dawn hours, but eventually that low-level dry
layer will erode around or after sunrise. This will eventually lead
to isolated to scattered light rain showers for today as the warm
front surges northward into our area. It certainly won`t be a
washout today, with the highest PoPs being drawn within the warm
front vicinity where the deepest moisture and lift can be found
later. QPF for today will be very light, with a few hundredths to
maybe a tenth of an inch possible.

As for temperatures, today will be warmer than yesterday thanks to
low-level WAA regime. Highs will vary from low to mid 70s north of
the Natcher (I-165), and upper 70s to the south. A few obs breaking
80F is not out the question either, but again the better chances for
that occurring will be across south-central Kentucky.

By tonight, the warm front will be lifting north of the Ohio River.
There continues to be divergence on the CAMs with the potential for
additional shower activity south of the front tonight. However, will
keep a PoP mention going for a few reasons. With the upper low
situated west of the Great Lakes overnight, we`ll likely have some
weak vort lobes extend out over the Ohio Valley to provide mid-level
forcing. Associated LLJ will also be shifting a bit more to the east,
resulting in low level lift in the warm sector along with a suitable
increase in low level moisture advection. With that said, think the
best placement for any late night PoPs will be generally along a
line that extends from the Ohio/Mississippi River confluence, up the
Ohio River towards southern Indiana, and pointing northward. Will
keep PoPs general below 30%, with the greater chances along our
northern tier of southern Indiana counties. Confidence is somewhat
low for tonight across southern Indiana, but confidence is higher in
a drier forecast for much of central Kentucky for tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Saturday through Tuesday Night...

Warm and breezy conditions are expected for the weekend as we`ll be
in a deep southwest flow.  Sensible weather this weekend will feel
more like late May/early June, though it will not be all that muggy
as dewpoints will remain in the 50s.  We could still see some
isolated/scattered showers/storms move through southern/central IN
Saturday morning.  However, model soundings across our CWA show a
pretty decent subsidence layer above 850 hPa which will keep us
capped through the weekend and limit convective potential.  Given
the tight pressure gradient, we`ll see breezy conditions across the
area with sustained afternoon wind speeds in the 15-20 mph range
with occasional gusts to 25-30 mph at times.  Highs on Saturday look
to top out in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 60-65 degree
range.  Sunday`s highs should be a bit warmer with readings in the
80-85 degree range.  A cold front will slowly approach the region
late Sunday night.  The overall movement of this front is a bit
slower than in previous forecast.  This isn`t all that surprising as
modeling in the last week has been too progressive.  Will keep a
slight chances of PoPs for late Sunday night across our far NW
sections.  Lows will be in the 60-65 degree range.

As we move into Monday/Tuesday, the upper level flow pattern is
forecast to deamplify as the upper low over the Plains lifts
northward into Canada.  As this happens, the SE ridge axis will
break down a bit and this will allow a cold front to drop into the
Ohio Valley bringing showers and scattered thunderstorms.  Model
sounding profiles continue to show rather weak lapse rates across
the region with the background shear values dropping off with time.
Shear values may be high enough to support some organized
convection, but overall severe potential looks very marginal at this
point.  The best chances of precipitation look to be from Monday
afternoon through late Monday night.  Highs Monday will be a bit
cooler with upper 70s to near 80 west of I-65 and lower 80s east of
I-65.  Lows Monday night look to drop back to 60-65.  Tuesday should
featured some scattered showers/storms in our east during the
afternoon with highs in the 75-80 degree range with overnight lows
dipping back into the upper 50s/lower 60s.

Wednesday and Thursday...

Another frontal boundary looks to push into the region for Wednesday
and this front may slowly work its way through the region into the
day on Thursday.  Generally speaking, scattered showers/storms will
be possible during this period as we`ll have instability work with,
but the shear profile looks weaker on Wednesday and a little
stronger on Thursday.  Given the setup, some strong to severe storms
may be possible during this period.  Highs will be in the upper 70s
to the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 50s/60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR flight categories will remain for the TAF period, though a warm
front will pass through later today. Isolated to scattered light
rain and VFR cigs are expected as a result of the frontal passage,
along with breezy SE winds this afternoon. For tonight, the warm
front will lift north, and a LLJ to our west will spread eastward.
This will result in LLWS for HNB and SDF, along with PROB30 groups
for additional rounds of SHRA overnight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRM
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CJP