577
FNUS73 KLOT 021313
FWSLOT

Spot Forecast for Nelson P. Piles 2...National Park Service
National Weather Service Chicago IL
813 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (815) 834-0666 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
A band of showers will move over the burn site between 9 and 10 am.
strike may occur in the band of showers, as well. Thereafter,
southeasterly winds will turn southerly and increase in magnitude
with sustained speeds of 15 to 20 mph as a warm front approaches
and lifts over the region. Once the warm front lifts north of the
burn site (around mid-afternoon), mixing heights will jump to
5000 feet, and southerly winds will gust over 25 mph. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected after sunset and though the
overnight hours as a cold front moves through the region.

Behind the cold front, light northerly winds (at or under 10 mph), low
mixing heights (below 2000 feet), and seasonably cool temperatures
(at or below 60 degrees) will prevail tomorrow.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy with showers this morning and
                    additional showers and thunderstorms this evening.
Temperature.........62 at ignition...Max 82.
RH..................54 percent at ignition...Min 43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Southeast winds 9 to 12 mph this morning increasing
                    to 15 to 20 mph this afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds may occur near thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 to 8 strikes wherever thunderstorms occur.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 22 mph.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5100 ft AGL this
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /14000 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /89000 knot-ft/.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........70  78  73  69  65  66  67  68  68
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Temp............62  65  68  71  75  78  80  81  80
RH..............54  50  47  46  43  43  44  44  44
20 FT wind dir..120 130 130 140 140 150 170 170 170
20 FT wind spd..10  12  13  13  13  13  13  13  12
20 FT wind gust.18  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.6 3.7 4.7 5.1 3.9
Transp wind dir.130 140 140 150 160 170 180 180 190
Transp wind spd.18  20  22  21  21  21  21  21  17
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  30  30  30
LAL.............2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..14  21  29  34  47  66  87  89  60

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms.
Temperature.........Min 57.
RH..................Max 93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 5 to 6 mph overnight. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes wherever thunderstorms occur.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 16 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 10 mph overnight, then shifting to the
                    west after 3 am.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (24200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1900 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........68  68  69  70  71  76  81  86  88  90  91  92
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Temp............77  74  71  69  68  67  65  64  62  61  60  60
RH..............50  55  59  66  68  68  73  78  81  81  84  87
20 FT wind dir..170 180 170 170 170 160 170 190 200 220 220 200
20 FT wind spd..12  10  9   9   9   8   8   8   7   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.17  16  15  15  14  13  12  10  10  9   8   7
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.190 190 190 180 180 190 190 220 250 280 280 260
Transp wind spd.15  15  16  15  15  14  13  10  10  9   6   5
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  40  50  60  60  60  60  60  60  70  70
LAL.............3   3   3   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..24  8   7   6   6   6   5   4   7   5   2   2

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers, mainly in the
                    morning.
Temperature.........Max 61.
RH..................Min 80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North to northwest winds below 10 mph.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2800 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........92  93  92  90  89  87  85  83  82  81  79  75
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Temp............60  60  60  57  55  54  55  54  54  54  53  53
RH..............87  87  84  93  100 100 93  93  90  90  89  86
20 FT wind dir..210 200 230 290 320 330 350 000 010 010 010 020
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   7   7   8   8   9   9   9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.7   8   8   9   9   13  14  14  14  14  14  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.260 310 330 350 350 000 010 010 020 020 020 020
Transp wind spd.7   9   10  12  13  14  14  13  12  12  12  12
Chc of pcpn (%).70  70  70  70  50  50  50  20  20  20  10  10
LAL.............3   3   3   3   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3   4   8   4   4   4   5   5   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...Borchardt
Requested by...Joe James
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413019.0/LOT
.DELDT 05/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0