657
FXUS61 KLWX 130120
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
920 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure returns tonight into Monday. A slow moving low
pressure system will bring more unsettled weather Tuesday into the
middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
With the loss of diurnal heating, shower activity has rapidly
begun to weaken across far northeastern Maryland. Regional radar
imagery over the Mid-Atlantic shows some residual echoes
dropping down from south-central Pennsylvania. Have added
isolated showers to the forecast for the Baltimore metro area
through late this evening. Otherwise, the daytime stable wave
clouds which formed have begun to decay which should yield a
mostly clear sky tonight. The exception is just east of D.C. to
the Chesapeake Bay. Winds have shifted to onshore which is
likely to keep low to mid-level clouds around through the
overnight hours.

Expect another cool night as lows drop to the 40s to low 50s.
Some patchy fog is not out of the question east of I-95 where
low clouds are prevalent.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure moves across the region Monday, bringing dry
conditions and high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Another
area of low pressure approaches from the west Monday night, causing
sky cover to increase and milder lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.

The middle of the week looks to be very unsettled as that area of
low pressure slowly moves across the region, and a broad mid-level
shortwave also moves overhead. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
are forecast each afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday, with scattered
showers and a few storms lingering well into the evening. Locally
heavy rainfall is possible that could lead to a few instances of
flooding. At this time, the severe threat looks to be low.

Cloudy skies keep highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s each day,
though overnight lows will only drop to the upper 50s to 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
One upper low will be exiting the area Thu afternoon with ridging
building Fri and the next upper trof crossing the area Saturday,
although not as deep/strong as the one on Wednesday. CAPE looks
minimal, so we`re likely just looking at showers and not
thunderstorms. Ridging build again for the second half of next
weekend into early next week. Expect temps at or slightly below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Some residual light showers are expected to move across the
Baltimore terminals within the next hour. Otherwise, it will be
a dry night across the area.

Winds turn northeast this evening, then east overnight, though very
light and could be calm at many locations. This could bring in some
lower clouds and even some 5 to 6SM visibilities to KMTN and
KBWI late tonight. Any low clouds burn off by mid morning
Monday.

VFR and dry conditions Monday as southerly winds return.

Unsettled weather likely Tuesday and Wednesday as a slow moving area
of low pressure crosses the region. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms are likely each afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday, with
showers and a few storms lingering well into the evening. The
strongest storms could produce sub-VFR conditions at any terminal,
and could also produce gusty winds.

Showers Thu likely producing MVFR cigs.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have quickly decreased after sundown with a shift to
northeast to east winds overnight. These should be relatively
light, generally at 5 knots or less.

High pressure builds over the area Monday, but southerly channeling
is expected to result in SCA conditions over much of the waters
Monday afternoon into Monday night.

Unsettled weather returns to the area as a slow moving area of low
pressure crosses the region. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
are expected each afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday. The strongest
storms could produce wind gusts of 35 knots or greater, in addition
to lightning strikes. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for
portions of the waters if these strong storms develop.

SCA conditions likely Thu into Fri.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A brief change to northwest winds today has dropped anomalies,
though minor coastal flooding is still likely at sensitive sites
in Annapolis and Straits Point at high tide Monday morning.
Southerly flow quickly returns Monday and likely continues
through mid week. Additional period of coastal flooding seem
likely in the coming days.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...BRO/KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/BRO/KRR
MARINE...LFR/BRO/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX