070
FXUS64 KLZK 192334
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
634 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery depicted upper level
ridging extending from east Texas to the northeast over the
eastern Great Lakes region. There was an upper level disturbance
just southeast of the four corners area aiding in surface
cyclogenesis over western Kansas. Visible satellite imagery and
surface observations showed fair weather cumulus over Arkansas
with temperatures in the upper 80s and a couple of 90 degree
readings as well. To the south of the strengthening surface
cyclone over Kansas was a dry line extending due south across the
Oklahoma and Texas panhandles.

Thunderstorms are expected to continue developing over western
Kansas this afternoon and evening, extending south along portions
of the dryline late this afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop
over the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles are expected to move east
in west-southwest flow aloft as upper level ridging over Arkansas
flattens out a bit in response to the eastward moving upper level
disturbance. The showers and thunderstorms will approach northwest
Arkansas early Monday morning, but are very likely to dissipate as
they run into mid-level dry air and weak subsidence aloft over the
state. Outside of some high cloud cover spreading over the state,
no impacts are expected from thunderstorms off to our west.

A stronger upper level trough will move east-northeast from the
western Continental United States (CONUS) over the Central Plains
Tuesday afternoon. This will cause a cold front to push southeast
from the northern Plains southeast towards the upper Arkansas
River Basin. The stronger southwest flow aloft will push a dryline
east towards central Oklahoma leaving something akin to a triple
point along the Kansas and Oklahoma border Tuesday evening.
Despite the mesoscale forcing in place between the cold front and
dryline, the lack of upper level forcing for ascent is expected to
be insufficient to overcome a mid-level capping inversion in place
over the southern portion of the warm sector, so convection
initiation is not expected at this time. Will have to continue to
monitor the evolution of the mesoscale environment to ensure that
the cap holds, but expect the northwestern portion of the CWA to
remain dry at least through sunset Tuesday evening. Temperatures
will remain warm tomorrow and Tuesday with highs topping out in
the lower 90s each day.

Cavanaugh

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

To begin the period, a low pressure system will be moving into the
the Great Lakes region bringing a cold front into the state late
Tuesday into Wednesday. The front is expected to stall across the
state with the chance for unsettled weather remaining possible
through the weekend as a couple of shortwaves ride along the
stalled front.

The chance for severe weather is possible with these
systems...although on the low side. It appears the time of day could
impact the chance for severe weather meaning convection could
struggle during the overnight hours Tuesday into Wednesday. We are
still a few days away and changes to the forecast will be possible.

Temperatures are expected to be on the warmer side through much of
the period. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 80s to
lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Higher
humidity will likely make temperatures feel slightly warmer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

All sites will experience VFR flight category throughout the
forecast period from Sunday evening into Monday evening. No
degradation flight category is expected in terms of CIGS or VSBY.
Surface winds across all sites will become light and variable
Sunday night and will become re-established out of the south on
Monday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     66  89  68  89 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         65  91  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       65  87  68  87 /  10  10   0  10
Hot Springs AR    66  91  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  68  92  71  91 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     67  92  71  91 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      65  90  68  89 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  65  87  68  89 /   0  10   0  10
Newport AR        67  89  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     67  91  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   67  91  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         65  89  68  90 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      68  89  71  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...74