095
FXUS64 KMAF 152259
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Updated to include isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon and
early this evening, mainly for the central/eastern Permian Basin
southward across the Lower Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau in the
vicinity of the dryline. While the thunderstorm and severe threat
remains highly conditional, isolated storms that do develop would
be high-based and capable of a damaging wind and hail threat.
Storms, should they occur, will move eastward and gradually weaken
after sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Despite increased high clouds today, temperatures are still climbing
well above normal, already in the 80s and lower 90s early this
afternoon and on target to top out in the 90s for most, with upper
80s in the mountains, and 100s along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend.
The main concern today is potential for isolated thunderstorm
development in the vicinity of the dryline, which per latest
observations, extends roughly from the TX/NM state line southward
across the Trans Pecos, with a dewpoint in Pecos this hour of 38F,
and in Coyanosa, 51F. The thunderstorm and thus, severe threat today
is highly conditional, though given a substantially dry sub-cloud
layer characterized by surface dewpoint depressions around 30F-40F,
any storms that develop would be high-based and mainly a
microburst/damaging wind threat. Long straight hodographs also
indicate a hail threat, though quite a bit of evaporation would
occur before any hailstones hit the ground. That said, while it`s a
conditional/low potential (around 10-20%) for storms, the locations
that could see storms this afternoon are east of the dryline across
the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Stockton Plateau. Storms
that develop would move eastward, weakening after sunset with the
loss of insolation.

Tonight, a cold front will continue its southward trek toward the
region, maintaining storm chances overnight across far northern and
northeastern areas where ascent will increase ahead of the
approaching boundary. The front is progged to move into northern
areas around daybreak, and slowly push southward through the day. As
with fronts, highs tomorrow are highly dependent on the timing and
location. Currently, expect highs across the northern tier of the
forecast area to struggle to make it out of the 70s tomorrow, with
80s across most other areas, and 90s across the Lower Trans Pecos
and along the Rio Grande. Of additional concern with the front will
be the ample moisture after continued southerly return flow ahead of
the boundary, as well as an approaching positively tilted shortwave
that`s progged to translate eastward from New Mexico across West
Texas through Thursday evening. The reflected surface low is progged
to develop over Southeast New Mexico, and generally ride
southeastward along the front following the Pecos Valley during the
afternoon. That said, we`ll have forcing for ascent tomorrow that
has been the limiting factor in thunderstorm development and
coverage the past couple of days. Deterministic guidance and CAMs
indicate a majority of the storms will develop behind the front in
better moisture as the dryline pushes eastward, with high-based
supercells possible with convective initiation early afternoon, with
large hail and damaging winds the main concerns. Storms would
gradually grow upscale due to outflow boundary interactions, moving
eastward/southeastward through the evening. Have maintained a low
(10-40%) probability of severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening to account for this threat, encompassing the area that the
SPC has outlined in a Marginal Risk or better.

Subsidence in the wake of the departing trough on Thursday night as
well as continued cool/cold advection behind the boundary will yield
a cooler, drier night, as temperatures fall into the 50s for most of
the region. Aside from some lingering showers and thunderstorms
across northeastern areas, that will gradually diminish through
midnight, most of the region will stay dry. Unfortunately, for those
that do not receive rain from this system, we may be out of luck for
the foreseeable future as Mother Nature decides to get a head start
on summer, the gory details of which can be found below.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

A somewhat uneventful pattern emerges by the end of this week
through much of the following week, at least for our neck of the
woods. More exciting weather is expected elsewhere across the
southern Great Plains during this period but alas we luck out.
Instead of rainfall, we crank up the heat. Once a trough clears the
region early Friday, mid-level ridging quickly takes its place.
While these effects won`t be felt on Friday, as a post-frontal
airmass holds on, the same can`t be said by the weekend. Friday sees
relatively cool temperatures merely in the 80s and 90s under
clearing skies. The torch really kicks in after this point as the
first widespread 100s of the year appear likely. As the ridge
builds, temperatures soar well into the upper 90s with 100s along
the river valleys by Saturday. Temperatures only worsen from there
as widespread 100s develop for almost all locations outside of the
higher elevations, though even these locations climb well into the
90s. Temperatures may climb into the 110s for portions of the Big
Bend along the Rio Grande Valley. Monday is expected to see similar
scorching temperatures though perhaps even a touch warmer than
Sunday. With this excessive heat this early in the season, it is
very possible that heat products may be needed for some. The most
likely locations for these appear to be across portions of the
mountains, Rio Grande Valley, and perhaps the far eastern counties.
If Midland Intl` reaches 100 or greater on Sunday or Monday, this is
nearly two weeks earlier than the normal first 100-degree-day on
average of May 31st. Temperatures begin to back off slightly on
Tuesday as a trough approaches the central Rocky Mountains, reducing
heights a bit. As the trough departs, heights remain a bit lower
overall keeping temperatures from reaching the same heights as the
weekend, though widespread upper 90s and low 100s remain across the
region. On top of this heat, no rain is expected, offering no relief
from the heat. It is too early to be talking about this! *Insert
frustrated forecaster noises here*

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

The next 24 hours are somewhat of a crapshoot, given frontal
timing uncertainty, dryline placement uncertainty, and
timing/extent of post-frontal stratus. Attm, the latest NBM keeps
cigs VFR everywhere but KMAF, which may see a couple of hours of
MVFR Thursday morning. Other terminals except KFST should have
stratus, but it should remain VFR. Cold front fropa at KHOB could
be as soon as 06Z, but much of this will depend on convection to
the north, so we`ve timed it closely to the latest NAM. Convection
will be possible Thursday afternoon KCNM/KHOB, but this is too far
out for a mention attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               66  77  59  85 /  20  60  30  10
Carlsbad                 64  79  56  88 /   0  40  10  10
Dryden                   71  96  63  94 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            67  88  58  90 /  10  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           61  75  53  81 /   0  30   0  10
Hobbs                    59  74  52  85 /  10  60  20  10
Marfa                    57  82  50  85 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     67  80  57  86 /  10  40  10  10
Odessa                   67  82  57  87 /  10  40  10  10
Wink                     65  83  56  90 /  10  30  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...44