995
ACUS11 KWNS 081629
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081628
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-081800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0697
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024

Areas affected...Southeast MO...southern IL...and far western KY

Concerning...Tornado Watch 203...

Valid 081628Z - 081800Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 203 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado threat is increasing across southeast Missouri,
into southern Illinois, and far western Kentucky. This will include
potential for cyclical tornadogenesis and a strong (EF2-EF3)
tornado.

DISCUSSION...Long-lived/tracked supercell centered on northern
Crawford/southern Franklin counties in MO as of 1620Z has fully
transitioned from earlier elevated character to surface-based.
Measured severe gusts up to 58 kt have been reported in the past
hour at the Vichy ASOS. It will likely persist along the composite
outflow that extends southeastward, where additional supercells are
maturing in far southern IL. The strongest low-level flow across the
region remains in southern MO per SGF VWP data, with somewhat weaker
but more veering with height over the MS/OH Valley confluence per
the PAH VWP data. This will yield an STP environment of 1-3 across
the region, supportive of a strong tornado. Overall convective mode
will probably become increasingly complex with time as considerable
storm-scale consolidation occurs through the afternoon, but
occasional attempts at tornadogenesis should occur with multiple
embedded supercells.

..Grams.. 05/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   38429142 38489045 38198884 37858812 37308770 36898792
            36738829 36798878 37269021 37899159 38429142