Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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730 FXUS64 KMEG 121122 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 622 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 A mostly dry and mild day is on tap for the Mid-South with highs in the lower 80s. An isolated shower is possible across northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Shower and thunderstorm chances will ramp up tonight and continue through Tuesday as an upper level disturbance moves through the region. Dry and mild weather returns for Wednesday and most of Thursday before rain chances increase toward the end of the week as the next system pushes into the region. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Mid and high clouds are increasing across the region in advance of the approaching system currently over the Four Corners region. Temps range from the lower 50s in the the typical cooler spots along the TN River to the mid 60s across the Delta region SW of Memphis. A mid-level shortwave ridge axis will move across the Mid-South today with another mostly dry and mild day expected. Clouds will continue to increase in advance of the next system and temps will reach into the lower 80s as winds turn light southerly. Southerly winds will bring an increase in moisture as dewpoints start to climb a bit. As moisture starts to surge northward across the Delta the CAMs are picking up on a few showers developing across NE AR and the MO Bootheel late this afternoon and early this evening. The upper low over the SW US will push across the Southern Plains tonight and Monday. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will ramp up tonight and Monday morning. A cold front will push into western AR and the Arklatex Monday afternoon. The airmass across the Lower MS Valley will be moist, with dewpoints in the mid 60s, and somewhat unstable, with SBCAPES > 1000 J/kg pushing into much of AR. Expect clusters of storms to develop across the western AR and Arklatex early Monday afternoon. These clusters will push ENE into the early evening. The environment will be less favorable over the Mid-South but a few strong to severe storms may survive before they weaken across the Mid-South. There is a marginal risk for severe storms along and south of a line from JBR-MEM-TUP. The upper low will pivot into the OH Valley on Tuesday with showers and a few thunderstorms continuing. Surface heating Tuesday afternoon may create enough instability for a few strong storms over NE MS. The upper low exits the region Tuesday night with rain chances coming to and end. Wednesday looks like the nicest day of the week. Upper ridging will move over the region with dry weather and sunshine. Highs will be the upper 70s. It is beginning to look like we may squeak another mostly nice day on Thursday as the ridge hangs on and the next system is slowing down a bit. The next system will push out of the SW US by the end of the week with rain chances increasing Thursday night into Friday. A moist and relatively unstable boundary layer combined with an upper trough in mid-May will probably result in a few strong storms at some point. The trough should push east of the region by the weekend resulting in mostly dry, warm weather. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 VFR conditions will continue for much of the day and into the evening hours. Low clouds producing MVFR ceilings along with scattered showers will move into the southwestern half of the region after midnight. A few thunderstorms will be possible over western sections of the Mid-South by the end of the forecast period. Winds will be light and variable this morning before becoming southerly at 5 to 10 knots for the remainder of the forecast period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...ARS