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000
FXUS62 KMFL 131842
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
242 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...Threat Of Rip Currents Continues For East Coast Beaches Of
South Florida This Weekend Into Next Week...

...Dry Weather Continues Through End Of Next Week...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1239 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

As a mid level trough pushes further into the western Atlantic, a
rather strong mid level ridge centered over Mexico will gradually
extend eastward through the Gulf of Mexico and towards South Florida
as the weekend progresses. At the surface, a large area of high
pressure centered over the Gulf Coast states will continue moving
eastward tonight and into the western Atlantic on Sunday. While a
dry northwesterly wind flow will continue in the mid to upper levels
through the rest of the weekend, the wind flow at the surface will
continue to veer and gradually become easterly as the rest of the
weekend progresses. The influence of the area of high pressure will
keep dry conditions in place throughout the rest of the weekend.
However, the air mass will start to see a slow increase in moisture
in the lower levels heading into Sunday with winds coming off the
Atlantic. This will allow for relative humidity values to start to
increase during this time frame. Low temperatures tonight will
generally range from the lower 50s west of Lake Okeechobee to the
mid 60s along the east coast. High temperatures on Sunday will rise
to around 80 along the east coast, and into the lower to mid 80s
across Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

The surface high will park over the Western Atlantic waters next
week as the mid to upper level high parks over the Florida
Peninsula. This will block any fronts to the north to move into
the Florida Peninsula next week. Therefore, dry weather will
continue over South Florida next week along with moderate to
breezy easterly wind flow.

Highs early next week will be mid to upper 80s except around 80
east coast areas before slowly increasing through the week. By
end of next week, highs will be in the lower to mid 90s, except
mid to upper 80s east coast areas. With the dry air still in place
over South Florida, the heat index readings will be very close to
the forecast highs over south Florida next week.

Lows early next week will be in the lower to mid 60s, except mid
to upper 60s east coast areas and around 60 west of Lake
Okeechobee. Lows will then slowly increase through next week, and
by end of next week be in the mid to upper 60s. The only exception
is that the east coast metro areas will see lows late next week in
the lower to mid 70s and around 70 west coast metro areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Northeasterly winds will continue this afternoon and they will be
gusty at times especially across the east coast terminals. At
KAPF, winds may become more northerly later this afternoon as a
Gulf breeze tries to develop. These winds will gradually become
more easterly as tonight progresses across all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1239 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Winds across the local waters will gradually become easterly as the
rest of the weekend progresses. Moderate to fresh breezes will
continue especially across the Atlantic waters heading into the
early portion of the week. Wave heights across the Atlantic waters
could still rise up to 6 feet for the rest of today, however, they
will slowly subside heading into tonight and Sunday. Wave heights
across the Gulf waters will range from 2 to 3 feet today, however,
they will also slowly subside heading into tonight and Sunday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1239 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

As winds become easterly, a moderate risk of rip currents will
continue across the Atlantic Coast beaches through the rest of the
weekend. The risk of rip currents along the Gulf coast will continue
to decrease throughout tonight and into the rest of the weekend.

The threat of rip currents will then increase again early to
middle of next week for the east coast beaches of South Florida
due to the moderate to breezy easterly winds setting up over the
region. If this trend continues, then a high risk of rip currents
may be needed for the east coast beaches early next week late this
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1239 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

A very dry air mass continues to remain in place across South
Florida as a large area of high pressure remains centered off to the
north. This will allow for minimum relative humidity values to drop
and range between 25 to 30 percent across Southwest Florida this
afternoon. With the return of easterly wind flow, relative humidity
values will be highest on the east coast, however, they could range
between 30 and 35 percent heading into the interior sections this
afternoon.

The dry air will remain over South Florida for most of next week
allowing for the relative humidities to fall into the lower to mid
30s over the western interior and west coast metro areas each
afternoon. However, the eastern interior and east coast metro
areas will see the relative humidity remain above the 35 percent
each day due to the easterly wind flow bringing in some low level
moisture to the area next week. However, the 20 foot winds will
remain below the 15 mph over the western areas each day next week.
Therefore, it does not look like there will be a need for any
fire weather headlines for South Florida for rest of this weekend
into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            66  79  66  81 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     62  80  62  81 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        64  80  65  81 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        65  79  65  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  67  78  66  79 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  65  78  66  80 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   65  81  65  81 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  62  79  64  81 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       64  80  65  79 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           61  85  64  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....BNB
AVIATION...CWC
Marine...CWC/BNB
Fire Weather...CWC/BNB