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000
FXUS62 KMFL 221238
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
838 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Bumped up PoPs in the near term through this afternoon. The CAMS
aren`t handling convective initiation well so far today, and the
belief is that convection will be more widespread this afternoon
than they are showing due to mid/upper level support crossing the
area during peak heating. Hail and isolated strong/severe winds
still appear to be the main threats this afternoon into early
evening across the metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A weakening cold front will move into southern Florida today,
allowing for an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Moving aloft, there is general traces of the long-lived high
pressure over the greater region but a couple of details are to be
noted. The first is at the mid-levels where a shortwave trough
could phase with peak heating today to help support some more
stout convection. The second is a departing upper level jet which
will slide south and east into the Atlantic by tonight.
Temperatures today could be slightly cooler compared to previous
days in areas with more cloud cover early in the day but will
still be warm.

Combining the localized shear from the sea breeze, available surface-
based instability thanks to diurnal heating, limited inhibition,
and abundant moisture, there could be some isolated thunderstorms
which become strong to locally severe. Strong to damaging winds,
quarter-sized hail, and frequent to excessive lightning become the
primary hazards of concern with strong to severe storms today.
Tornado threat is non-zero as well, particularly where boundaries
interact.

A mid-level trough will move across the southeastern United States
tonight before exiting into the Atlantic waters off the Carolinas
by early Tuesday. This feature will come into phase with the
surface front and allow the associated low pressure to develop
over the Atlantic waters as it moves away from the southeastern US
coast. The frontal boundary should be well past southern Florida,
somewhere between the Florida Straits and the Bahamas before the
reinforcing of the parent low occurs. This will open the door for
a surface high to build over the region with relatively drier and
cooler air settling in.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 209 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

High pressure holding as we move into mid-week with generally dry
conditions across the region. A weak boundary attempts to move
into the state on Thursday but dissipates quickly with surface
high pressure off the Atlantic seaboard able to build back in to
close out the week. The high will shift south closer to Florida by
the weekend as the next low pressure and associated front pass to
the north across the northern tier of the United States into the
Atlantic off New England. Overall, the long term period should be
dry save for Atlantic showers during easterly wind flow and the
potential for sea breeze convection later in the week as moisture
returns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

SCT showers and thunderstorms are possible today ahead of an
approaching cold front. Light and VRB winds early this morning
become W/NW 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts this afternoon.
After the frontal boundary crosses, winds become N/NE tonight.
Brief sub-VFR ceilings and visbys are possible in and near
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 209 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase on Monday as a frontal
boundary approaches and moves into the area. Behind the front, winds
will build and become east northeasterly heading towards the
middle of the week across all local waters. A developing
northeasterly swell in the Atlantic behind the front could create
hazardous marine conditions heading into the middle of the week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 209 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

The rip current risk will increase across all of the Atlantic
beaches heading towards the middle of the week as onshore flow
develops along with an increasing northeasterly swell.
Accordingly, a Rip Current Statement will be needed tonight into
Wednesday for a high rip current risk along the Atlantic beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            87  70  79  68 /  50  30  10   0
West Kendall     88  67  82  65 /  40  30  10   0
Opa-Locka        87  68  81  67 /  50  30  10   0
Homestead        87  69  81  67 /  30  30  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  85  70  78  68 /  60  20  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  85  69  78  67 /  50  20  10   0
Pembroke Pines   88  69  82  67 /  50  30  10   0
West Palm Beach  84  67  78  65 /  60  10  10   0
Boca Raton       85  68  79  67 /  60  10  10   0
Naples           82  64  84  65 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday
     for AMZ630.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...CMF