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000
FXUS62 KMHX 150909
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
509 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains offshore today while a backdoor cold
front approaches from the north and moves through the area
tonight. This front will then lift back north as a warm front
tomorrow. High pressure ridging briefly builds back into the
Southeast around midweek before the next cold front impacts the
area next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 4 AM Mon...A ridge of high pressure will continue to
strengthen off the Southeast coast today, while a backdoor cold
front slowly approaches from the Mid- Atlantic. Building low
level heights will bring the warmest day of the spring so far to
Eastern NC with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s to
around 90 inland. Closer to the coast a strong sea breeze will
develop this afternoon which will limit peak heating, though
before that occurs a favorable WSW wind direction should allow
for readings to reach the upper 70s to low 80s early this
afternoon before temps begin to cool.

A brief interruption in the WAA this morning will keep a dry
airmass in place through the day, which will result in RH values
dropping into the low 20s again. Winds will be slightly weaker
than yesterday, but we will still see 15-20 mph wind gusts this
afternoon, and this will likely lead to a period of elevated
fire danger.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 4 AM Mon...A backdoor cold front will move into the
forecast area overnight, but an area of convection out ahead of
it will bring a threat for a few strong to severe thunderstorms
this evening into early tonight. This threat has decreased in
the last forecast cycle with convection now expected to initiate
later in the day in Virginia as well as farther north. As a
result thunderstorms will not move into northern NC until late
this evening or even early tonight, and by that time cells will
likely be weakening as instability decreases. However, the
convective environment is otherwise conducive for strong to
severe thunderstorms with excellent mid level lapse rates
present as well as adequate deep layer wind shear. Areas along
the Albemarle Sound and northern Outer Banks will have the best
chance to see any severe weather before convection weakens
overnight.

To the south of this area, persistent SW winds and some
convective cloud debris will keep temps very mild overnight and
into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM Mon... A fairly active pattern is on tap this week with
multiple frontal passages impacting the area into this weekend.

Tue and Wed... Upper ridging will push east across the Mid-Atlantic
on Tue and eventually off the coast by Wed while a weakening
trough lifts NE`wards from the Central CONUS into the Great
Lakes Tue into Wed. Mid level shortwave will track along this
upper ridging passing across the Carolinas Tue evening with a
second shortwave moving across the area on Wed. At the surface
stalled frontal boundary across the southern half of the CWA
will gradually lift N`wards Tue evening as a warm front. As
this front lifts N`wards ample moisture will combine with
increasing lift to result in isolated to widely scattered shower
and thunderstorm activity Tue afternoon and evening with this
activity lifting to the north of ENC by early Wed morning as the
front moves out of the area. As the second shortwave moves
across the Mid-Atlantic on Wed another round of isolated to
widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be
possible as a surface trough sets up along the Coastal Plain. At
the same time a weakening cold front will be approaching from
the west as well nearing the area by late Wed night. Temps will
remain above avg across the Coastal Plain with highs generally
in the low to mid 80s with temps nearing 70 along the SOBX.
Temps wilL be much cooler along the NOBX on Tue behind the
stalled boundary as NE`rly flow will bring a cool maritime
airmass over the region with temps rebounding on Wed into the
70s as SW`rly flow quickly returns.

Thurs into next weekend... Some minor tweaks to the forecast given
the latest trends as it now looks like multiple fronts will be
impacting the area to end our week. Weak upper trough quickly
transits across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday with zonal flow
overspreading the area this weekend. A second stronger trough
then approaches from the west at the start of next week. At the
surface cold front sweeps through the area Thurs morning once
again bringing a chance for some scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms through Thurs evening before we dry out on Fri.
Yet another frontal boundary impacts ENC Sat afternoon into
Sunday bringing a chance for more widespread precip this
weekend. Otherwise temps generally remain above avg into this
weekend before cooling off behind the second frontal passage
on Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday Morning/...
As of 4 AM Mon...VFR conditions are present this morning and
will continue through the TAF period. High pressure over the
area will keep skies mainly clear today with afternoon SW wind
gusts of 15-20 mph possible. Tonight, decaying convection moving
in from the north may bring some mid level VFR ceilings, but not
expecting anything more than that at local terminals.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Primarily VFR conditions are forecast
through the TAF period with the only chances for sub VFR
conditions being within any shower or thunderstorm that makes
its way into ENC Tue afternoon and evening and again on Thurs.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 4 AM Mon...Winds and seas will remain just under Small
Craft criteria through the period. SW winds will continue at
15-20 kts with some occasional wind gusts to 25 kts. A backdoor
front will move into the coastal waters early tomorrow morning
which will relax the gradient overnight to SW 10-20 kts. Seas
will be mostly 3-5 ft through early tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 510 AM Mon... Cold front will stall along the southern
periphery of our waters in Tue keeping the gradient light and
allowing winds to generally remain around 5-10 kts across all
waters. WInds to the south of the front will be SE-E while to
the north wind direction will be NE-E. Front lifts north as a
warm front Tue night bringing a threat for some scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms as well as shifting the winds
to a S-SW direction at 10-15 kts. Winds increase slightly to
15-20 kts out ahead of an approaching cold front with winds then
shifting THur night behind the front back to a N`rly direction.
Seas across our coastal waters generally remain around 2-4 ft
through the period, occasionally getting to 5 ft along the Gulf
Stream waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...SGK/RCF