Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
426 FXUS63 KMKX 090234 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 934 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers expected later Tonight through Thursday, with a few rumbles of thunder possible. No severe weather is expected. - Small Craft conditions may occur Thursday due to north winds and building waves. - Periods of showers and a few rumbles of thunder are expected Friday evening through Saturday. Strong storms are not expected at this time. && .UPDATE... Issued 933 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Current radar and satellite imagery do not support precipitation developing as previously thought. Increasing clouds and mid to lower level saturation to occur a little later tonight, so it should be dry through 06Z, and possibly up to 08-09Z. After this time, areas of light rain to spread over forecast area. Do not expect much in the way of convection. Northeast surface wind to remain persistant the rest of tonight into Thursday. This will keep temperatures cool. Rest of forecast for southern Wisconsin appears to be on track. KPL && .SHORT TERM... Issued 400 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Tonight through Thursday night: East winds have already developed in lakeshore counties behind the lake breeze, with widespread northeast winds developing tonight ahead of the approaching low pressure system. The low passes south of us tonight, leaving us with only 50 to 200 j/kg of MUCAPE in the latest CAM guidance. Scattered rainshowers are likely tonight, particularly after midnight. A few rumbles of thunder may occur, but no severe weather is expected at this time. Clouds and scattered showers linger Thursday, becoming more isolated later in the day. Sheppard && .LONG TERM... Issued 400 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Friday through Wednesday: A 40% chance for showers is forecast Friday evening ahead of a shortwave trough, rapidly approaching from the northwest. The combination of steepened lapse rates from CAA aloft and lifting / triggering from the PVA (both associated with the shortwave) may allow for some rumbles of thunder, but widespread severe wx is not expected. A 25% chance for continued shower activity is forecast on Saturday. A steady cadence of medium-amplitude troughs in the jet is expected to continue the pattern of occasional shower / thunderstorm chances through the end of the forecast period. Sheppard && .AVIATION... Issued 933 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 VFR conditions should persist up until 09Z Thursday. The airmass will eventually become saturated with lowering ceilings and MVFR by 12Z. These lower ceilings will continue over all routes on Thursday with areas of light rain. Additionally, flow off of Lake Michigan will result in breezy northeast surface winds late tonight through Thursday evening. KPL && .MARINE... Issued 400 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Low pressure of 29.5 inches over Missouri will drift northeastward into Illinois tonight, then exit east towards the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday. Variable winds up to 15 kts are expected for the remainder of the day, followed by steady northeast winds to 20 kts tonight as the low pressure approaches. Winds gradually back northerly on Thursday, accelerating to around 25 kts over the southern half of the lake. North winds decelerate Thursday night as high pressure of 30.0 inches approaches the Upper Great Lakes. Sheppard && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee