Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
917 FXUS62 KMLB 271400 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1000 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 957 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...High Risk for Rip Currents/Rough Surf at Area Beaches this Weekend... ...Deteriorating Boating Conditions across the Local Coastal Waters.... ...Breezy, Windy, Gusty East Winds Today... The KMLB WSR-88D radar shows scattered light showers ongoing this morning across the Atlantic waters, with some of these showers making it along the coast and pushing inland. The 10Z XMR sounding shows a moistening profile through the lower and part of the mid layer, with a PW value increasing from 1.05" yesterday to 1.24" today. This will support increasing cloud cover today, with lower level clouds pushing onshore from the Atlantic in the deep/onshore flow on top of the high clouds pushing in from the west. Onshore flow will persist today as High pressure remains in place across the eastern CONUS. As the pressure gradient tightens today, winds will increase to 16-23mph with frequent gusts of 25-30 mph possible, with up to 35 mph possible along the coast. Winds will diminish overnight, especially across the interior, with speeds remaining elevated and gusty closer to the coast tonight. Scattered light showers and sprinkles will continue over the Atlantic through tonight, with some of this activity making it to the coast and pushing inland. Have added PoP 10-15% across all of ECFL to account for these isolated light showers/sprinkles through tonight. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s across the coast, and low to mid 80s across the interior. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s. Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to rain chances through tonight to account for the light showers/sprinkles across the land areas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 957 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Marine stratocu will stream across the area in the stout onshore flow on top of the high level clouds pushing in from the west. Breezy and gusty onshore flow today, with speeds of 15-20 KT and gusts to 25-30 KT possible (up to 35 KT possible along the coast). Winds will slowly diminish this evening, however winds will remain elevated and gusty along the coast today. Light showers/sprinkles will be possible through tonight, especially along the coast from Cape Canaveral northward. Have included VCSH for DAB through 15Z, otherwise confidence and coverage not there for inclusion of VCSH. && .MARINE... Issued at 957 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Current buoy 41009 observations show seas are 6ft with ESE winds around 18 KT. Boating conditions will continue to deteriorate today as the pressure gradient tightens. Easterly winds of 15-20 KT this morning will increase to 20-25 KT by this afternoon before gradually decreasing late tonight to 15-20 KT. Seas 4-6ft will build up to 7ft in the offshore waters this afternoon, and 6-7ft in the near shore waters and 7-8ft in the Gulf Stream waters tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the all the offshore waters and the near shore waters today, with the SCA expanding to all the waters this afternoon and continuing into tonight. Isolated/scattered light showers/sprinkles will be possible through today and tonight, with activity moving towards the coast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Today...Deep onshore (ERLY) winds increase 15-20 mph with frequent higher gusts up to around 25 mph and perhaps 30-35 mph along the immediate coast at times this afternoon. Min RHs stay above critical levels, 40-45pct along the Kissimmee River and 45-60pct towards the coast. Conditions mainly dry outside of a sprinkle or brief light shower along the coast (esp Cape northward). Dispersions will be Very Good to Excellent! Sunday-Wednesday...East winds of 15-20 mph on Sunday will diminish through the early part of the work week. Temperatures will begin a warming trend, reaching the upper 80s to low 90s by mid-week. Min RH values will be above critical levels Sunday and Monday, but will drop below 40% west of Orlando by Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain remains out of the forecast this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Today-Tonight...Mid-level shortwave troughing across the eastern CONUS will weaken slightly and we will see some weak shortwave impulses penetrate the FL peninsula, but will have little effect due to the stable marine airmass in place. Stout surface high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will gradually weaken with center along the mid Atlc states by sunrise Sun morning. This will keep a persistent ERLY flow across the region. Wind speeds will increase to 16-23 mph sustained with frequent higher gusts across much of ECFL. Wind gusts will approach 25-30 mph, and won`t be surprised to see some gusts to 35 mph - especially along the coast. This tighter pressure gradient continues into the evening, with a diminishing trend overnight across the interior - though speeds will remain elevated and gusty closer to the coast. Though we have a fairly stable airmass in place, the deep/onshore flow will permit for a few sprinkles and perhaps a brief light shower to push onto the coast occasionally - especially Cape northward. Again, a trace to a few hundredths is all that can be expected. PoPs overall are up to 10-15pct over land areas. We should see a bit more cloud-cover pushing onto the coast and inland during the day, on top of the intruding high clouds (from the west). Afternoon highs in the U70s to L80s near the coast and L-M80s into the interior. Overnight mins remain mild and in the 60s areawide, perhaps some L70s along the immediate coast/barrier islands in play as winds stay elevated. Expect a HIGH risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents at ALL central FL Atlc beaches today. Rough surf will also be present. Entering the surf zone today will be strongly discouraged! Sunday-Monday...Surface high pressure will remain anchored just offshore from the Carolinas early in the week with a very strong and broad ridge aloft across most of the eastern CONUS. Deep onshore flow will persist due to the proximity of the surface high, with east winds of 15-20 mph. Little to no rain is forecast, although embedded oceanic moisture may lead to isolated showers over the Atlantic waters. Confidence in showers moving onshore is not high enough to include in the forecast, so have kept mention away from land areas on Sunday and Monday. Easterly flow will actually keep temperatures just a bit below normal on Sunday in the upper 70s to lower 80s at the coast and approaching the mid 80s inland. Highs warm a few degrees on Monday (closer to average values for late April). Seasonal lows in the mid 60s. Tuesday-Saturday...The remainder of the forecast period will be high and dry as the surface high drifts slightly seaward through midweek but still keeps influence on the local pattern. Onshore winds continue this week, increasing in the afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. No PoPs in the forecast through next weekend, although could see hints of light onshore moving showers similar to early in the week, but do not have confidence to include. Temperatures by Tuesday reach the upper 80s inland; still lower 80s at the coast, with the 90s making an appearance to begin the month of May. While it will be warm, lower dewpoints will keep the oppressiveness at bay for at least a bit longer. Lows in the mid/upper 60s persist this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 79 66 79 64 / 20 10 0 0 MCO 83 67 82 64 / 10 0 0 0 MLB 80 67 80 66 / 10 0 0 0 VRB 81 65 80 65 / 10 0 10 0 LEE 83 65 83 63 / 10 0 0 0 SFB 82 65 82 63 / 10 0 0 0 ORL 83 67 83 65 / 10 0 0 0 FPR 81 65 80 65 / 10 0 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ550-552. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-570-572- 575. && $$ Watson/Heil