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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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Spot Forecast for Hinson Fire...US Forest Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
359 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 EDT on April 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Southeast winds persist today near the wildfire, gusting to
around 20 mph from time to time this afternoon. A sea breeze
arriving between 4 and 7 PM has the potential to shift winds
slightly more to the east for a short time before winds veer
increasingly southerly tonight and into Thursday. Relative
humidity readings will fall to the low 40s, and dispersion will be
very good.

On Thursday, a cold front will approach from the west.
Strong, gusty winds from the southwest ahead of the front could
reach 35-40 mph from late morning to early afternoon. Then, a band
of showers and storms will arrive sometime likely after noon,
through late afternoon. While exact timing is still somewhat
uncertain, a few storms could contain wind gusts from 45-60 mph.
Lightning is also a threat in this activity. Wind directions near
storms can become erratic. Locally heavy rain will accompany any
storms that affect the burn area.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL increasing to 6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 18 mph.
Dispersion index....6 increasing to 81.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........63  61  59  51  58  56  54  55  51  46
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............64  69  75  77  81  82  84  86  84  84
RH..............90  81  69  64  54  53  47  43  46  46
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..6   8   10  12  12  12  12  12  10  10
20 FT wind gust.8   12  15  17  18  17  16  16  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 1.3 3.0 4.1 4.4 4.6 5.3 5.5 5.5 6.0
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
Transp wind spd.12  16  18  18  17  16  15  15  15  15
Dispersion idx..6   23  66  70  71  70  73  74  81  81
LVORI...........6   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 68.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 17 mph.
Dispersion index....59 decreasing to 14.
LVORI...............2 increasing to 4 in the late evening and
                    overnight.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........45     53     45     46     42     37
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............84     77     74     72     70     70
RH..............48     64     71     76     78     78
20 ft wind......SE 12  SE 12  SE 13  SE 12  SE 12  S 13
20 ft wind gust.16     17     18     20     18     20
Mix hgt (ft)....4500   800    700    500    500    500
Transport wind..SE 13  SE 15  SE 16  SE 16  S 17   S 17
Dispersion idx..59     13     14     14     13     15
LVORI...........1      2      3      4      4      4

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of
                    showers, then showers and chance of storms
                    in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1000, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 14 to 23 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL increasing to 5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 25 mph increasing to southwest 29
                    to 37 mph late in the morning.
Dispersion index....16 increasing to 51 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 78 late in the morning increasing
                    to 90 early in the afternoon increasing to 104
                    decreasing to 88 late in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 73.
LVORI...............4 decreasing to 1 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........39     62     69     78     88     82
Weather cov.....       CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........              CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      40     40     40     80     80
LAL.............1      3      3      3      3      3
Temp............70     69     78     87     86     85
RH..............84     87     67     52     55     55
20 ft wind......S 14   S 15   S 18   S 22   S 23   SW 21
20 ft wind gust.21     21     25     30     31     28
Mix hgt (ft)....400    800    2900   4400   5200   4000
Transport wind..S 17   S 20   S 25   S 32   S 37   SW 35
Dispersion idx..16     15     78     90     108    88
LVORI...........4      4      1      1      1      1

$$
Forecaster...Heil
Requested by...Ryan Coleman
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2410155.0/MLB
.DELDT 04/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ryan.coleman@usda.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
