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000
FXUS64 KMOB 202050
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
350 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A positively tilted upper trof over the northern Plains and
extreme northeast states evolves into a more meridionally oriented
upper trof over the eastern half of the CONUS. A frontal boundary
located from extreme southeast Mississippi into south central
Alabama remains close to this position through the afternoon then
drifts towards the coast this evening before continuing across
the marine area through Sunday morning. A series of shortwaves
move across the area through the period, and have gone with high
pops well inland tonight tapering to chance pops further to the
south. Likely to categorical pops follow for Sunday morning, then
pops taper off through the day with dry conditions developing over
much of southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama.
MLCAPE values this afternoon range from 1000-2000 J/kg then
gradually taper off overnight. Model soundings indicate that the
best lapse rates are above 800 mb this afternoon (near 7C/km),
then lapse rates moderate tonight. Shear values look low, but
considering the instability values and favorable lapse rates
aloft, expect that some strong storms are possible into the early
evening hours. Lows tonight mostly range from the upper 40s/around
50 well inland to the lower 60s at the coast. Highs on Sunday
range from the lower 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast. The
rip current risk through Sunday is expected to be low. /29

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through the period as an
upper-level trough digs into the southeast US on Monday before
sliding into western Atlantic by Monday night. At the surface, the
cold front which passed through the area in the near term will
continue to push further into the Gulf during the short term as
high pressure builds in from the north. This high will gradually
push eastward through the period, allowing for winds to turn from
northerly on Monday to southerly by Tuesday. With PWATs dropping
to below a half inch, and subsidence in place from the nearby
high, no rain is expected through the period. Lows Sunday and
Monday nights will range from the low to mid 40s inland to the low
50s along the immediate coast. Highs on Monday will only reach
the upper 60s to low 70s. Temperatures begin to moderate on
Tuesday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows Tuesday night
ranging from the upper 40s inland to thee upper 50s along the
coast. A Low risk of rip currents continues through the period.
/96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A dry northwesterly flow pattern aloft will generally occur
across our forecast area Wednesday through Thursday night, with
slight ridging aloft then expected on Friday and Saturday.
Surface high pressure is forecast to move east across the Gulf
coast states on Wednesday and Thursday, then continue ridging into
the region from the east for the remainder of the long term
period. As the high pressure moves across and then east of the
area, a gradual moderation of temps and moisture will return.
Don`t expect any rainfall through the period, but daytime high
temps warm into the upper 70s and low 80s on Wednesday, and then
be in the low to mid 80s Thursday through Saturday. Overnight lows
will range from the low to mid 50s inland to low 60s coastal both
Wednesday and Thursday nights, then mainly in the lower 60s area-
wide on Friday night. DS/12

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Light to occasionally moderate southerly winds gradually switch to
an offshore flow through early Sunday morning as a cold front slowly
moves through. The offshore flow becomes moderate to strong Sunday
afternoon into the evening hours then diminishes Monday morning.
Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for much of the area which will
be in effect Sunday night until mid Monday morning. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      57  66  46  72  47  75  53  80 /  40  70   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   63  71  52  73  53  73  57  78 /  30  80   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      65  74  54  73  56  72  59  76 /  20  80  10   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   54  65  44  71  44  77  50  81 /  60  60   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  49  61  43  70  43  77  50  81 /  70  60   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      49  60  43  69  43  75  49  79 /  70  60   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   59  71  47  74  44  77  49  82 /  20  70  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for
     GMZ631-632.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 10 AM CDT Monday for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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