167
FXUS64 KMOB 111132
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
632 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions will continue has high clouds move overhead. Winds
will remain light out of the north becoming light and variable
overnight. BB/03 &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 433 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Significantly calmer than 24 hours ago as upper troughing has dug
into the eastern US and ridging begins to build over the central
US. Unfortunately this will not last long as the next upper low is
sitting there menacingly over the desert southwest. For now
though we can enjoy some slightly cooler and drier conditions as
the surface cold front has surged well offshore. Temperatures will
be in the upper 70s to low 80s across most of the are this
weekend and few locations might reach the mid 80s along the
immediate coast. Lows tomorrow night will dip into the upper 50s
to low 60s. A Moderate risk of rip currents will continue through
today before decreasing to low Sunday. BB/03

SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Appears we will begin to see a quick transition to a weather
pattern than becomes more unsettled to open up the work week. A
low amplitude, short-wave upper ridge over the Gulf Sunday night
translates eastward early in the upcoming week. This allows an
active southwest flow at high levels to become oriented over the
deep south. Meanwhile, an upper level storm system advances
eastward out of the Central Plains, resulting in an increase in
deep layer ascent within a zone of diffluent flow aloft from LA,
northeast into AL through the day Monday and especially into
Monday night. This coincides with a northward push of deep Gulf
moisture with PWAT`s lifting above 2.00" as a surface warm front
draped from LA to the northern Gulf Monday, lifts north northeast
over the central Gulf coast Monday night. Notably, this lies well
above 2 standard deviations above the climatological means for
May 14th PWAT. Considering the orientation of and increase in high
level flow, well above normal deep moisture and frontal ascent,
the stage appears set for some decent rains to begin spreading in
Monday and Monday night which could lead to localized flooding
problems in areas subject to poor drainage, considering recent
rains from last storm system. The latest Day 3 Excessive Rainfall
Outlook (ERO) (12Z Mon-12Z Tue) shows the entire area within a
slight risk. The National Centers do indicate that there is some
potential for a targeted upgrade of the ERO to a moderate risk on
later forecasts, but considering areal spread of the rainfall
footprint amongst weather models, the result as of now lends to
too low of confidence to go with it yet.

There is also some potential of strong to isolated severe storms
mainly along and south of the warm front`s warm sector late in
the short term. At this time, the risk is marginal for our area
Mon/Mon night, with the better risk west of the local area from
the Lower MS River to east TX.

Overnight lows moderate through the period, lifting to well into
the 60s interior and into the lower to mid 70s coast by Monday
night and well above the climatological means for mid May. With
clouds and increase in precipitation Monday, highs range mostly
in the upper half of the 70s interior to lower 80s coast.

Rip current risk increases to Moderate. /10

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

An on-going area of better showers/storm coverage looks to be
positioned along and east of I-65 Tuesday morning within a region
of stronger flow and deep moisture ahead of an eastward advancing
front. Precipitation is expected to decrease from west to east
going into Tuesday afternoon and evening as the front settles
southward and drier air begins to spread in at the base of the
upper storm system`s trof axis pushing through the TN River
Valley. The front stalls mid-week to the south of the coast and
appears to head back north the latter half of the week in response
to next southern stream upper level storm ejecting eastward out
of TX. This favors yet another round of showers and storms. Could
be some heavy rain and/or severe weather with the late week
feature but too early for details.

Daily highs in the 80s. Nights in the lower to mid 60s interior to
lower to mid 70s coast.

Rip current risk increases to High levels by the middle of the
work week. /10

MARINE...
Issued at 433 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

A moderate to occasionally strong northerly wind this morning
will slowly relax in the wake of a cold front. Winds will slowly
become onshore by early next week in advance of our next system.
Rain and storms return to the marine waters later next week as
winds and seas steadily increase. BB/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      83  63  83  66  79  68  85  66 /   0   0   0  30  90  80  70  10
Pensacola   83  66  81  69  80  72  83  70 /   0   0   0  30  80  90  80  20
Destin      83  68  81  70  81  73  82  72 /   0   0   0  20  60  90  90  20
Evergreen   81  59  81  61  79  66  83  64 /   0   0   0  30  80  80  90  10
Waynesboro  80  60  79  61  77  65  84  61 /   0   0  10  40  90  70  70  10
Camden      78  58  81  61  76  64  82  62 /   0   0   0  30  80  80  70  20
Crestview   83  58  83  62  82  66  83  65 /   0   0   0  20  70  90  90  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob