433
AWUS01 KWNH 030008
FFGMPD
TXZ000-030500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0210
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
806 PM EDT Thu May 02 2024

Areas affected...Northwest TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030005Z - 030500Z

Summary...Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr may lead to short-term totals
of 3-4", isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Splitting supercell thunderstorms have erupted across
Northwest TX late this afternoon, being fueled by a warm, humid
air mass transported north from the Gulf of Mexico. That air mass
is currently characterized by extreme instability (SB CAPE of
3000-6000 J/kg), PWATs of 1.0-1.3 inches (near the 90th
percentile, per surrounding SPC sounding climatology), and
effective bulk shear of ~40 kts. This parameter space should
continue to support upscale growth of deep convection for several
more hours, and the dominant right-mover favors a relatively slow
SE to ESE trajectory at ~15 kts (per RAP hodographs). This should
allow for the current peak 1-2"/hr rainfall rates to expand a bit,
and the repeating of these rates could lead to localized
short-term totals of 3-4" (as 6-hr 18z HREF 40-km neighborhood
probabilities for 3" exceedance of 10-30% also suggest). As the
dry line retreats west this evening, deep layer moisture flux
convergence will rapidly diminish and convection may fairly
rapidly dissipate. In the meantime, isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding are possible where 2"+ amounts are
locally able to accumulate (which is nearing or exceeding 3-hr
FFGs).

Churchill

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34129924 33959823 33469787 32939765 32159751
            31739757 31199782 30939842 30939929 31239995
            31850012 32720013 33450008 33859989